Mafia [MAFIA] Lovers Mafia [GAME OVER, MAFIA VICTORY]

No, I wouldn't at all. Probability is only relevant in a vacuum. There is no way both my Lovers are scum, and I find it highly unlikely that even one of them is.

 

But would it be even more unlikely for Midnight to be connected to two Mafia, Al and Judge? It's the same probability that we looked at with them as we are looking at you now. Wouldn't it also be unlikely for Midnight to have both of her lovers be scum as well?

 

I'm not WIFOMing Makaze's system. I'm pointing at what you're saying.

You're saying there's no way, but there is an equal chance if all of this has been done randomly. The chance of Midnight being connected to two Mafia is the same as you being connected to two Mafia, or me being connected to two Mafia at the beginning of the game.

What I'm saying is, if it's unlikely one or both of your lovers are scum, it's also unlikely for Midnight's second lover to also be Mafia.[DOUBLEPOST=1470331096][/DOUBLEPOST]In other words, despite Judge's behavior, throw that away entirely, how can there be a way that both Midnight's lovers are Mafia if both yours can't possibly be?[DOUBLEPOST=1470331158][/DOUBLEPOST]When I'm looking at the targets here, I'm not looking at who is Mafia, because there are cases against all three of you. I'm looking at what is the safest lynch, and we have a better chance of finding two Mafia in three, then two Mafia in two.

 

Then you're not looking at all the factors.

I'm not talking strict probability, I'm incorporating my reads. I'm not willing to risk anybody in my Lover entanglement dying to satisfy my top Mafia suspects' curiosity.

 

@Mish @Karuta @Korosu Where are you guys? What do you make to all of this?

Also Karuta, you never answered my question about how suspecting Cal originally made me suspicious. I don't suspect her now, in fact she's one of my biggest town reads but I still don't understand why me suspecting Cal earlier on in the game made me more likely to be mafia. It's not that relevant in the big scheme of things but I came under suspicion for the post where I asked you that so at the very least I want an answer to the question.

 

I want to keep this senseless dispute down to a minimum. I will reply only to some of the more relevant parts of your post, otherwise we'll be running in circles.

I will say this as clearly as I can. You are an experienced player; you have modded a handful of games before. The fact that these new players are playing like this doesn't make them more Town-like. It could apply to any alignment. They could be Town who are simply too hesitant like you say. But they could also just as easily be newbie Mafia staying silent. Unless there's some other evidence you're deliberately not telling us that would make you feel this strong about them, your defense doesn't hold up.

There are two distinct and very important things here, and you shouldn't get them mixed up. Her plan worked becuase she thought she was lovered to Mafia. Her lynch managed to nab us a mafioso, end of story. The trade-off, however, wasn't fair, and you're completely right about that part.

To get my point across, please consider this hypothetical scenario: T <3 T <3 M <3 T <3 T. Might I point out that there is nothing too absurd here, probability-wise. My question is, how can you lynch that one pesky mafioso without getting two townies killed as well? Answer: you can't. In order for him to be taken out, two townies must die. It's an inevitability on the way towards a Town victory. Now let's go back to our game. If I'm right about Midnight, this is precisely the order of roles starting at Cstar and ending at me. This means that if we ever hoped to win, we'd have to accept this trade-off one way or the other.

To sum up: plan worked, exchange wasn't fair, but was also most likely unavoidable.

Remember that talk about not revealing lovers as a way to protect them/yourself from the Mafia? Bingo. As a confirmed Townie who knew one of his lovers had just been confirmed Town (Sax) and was convinced that the other was also innocent (Midny), I saw no benefit in simply handing out that info to the Mafia for free. Interesting to note is that you only went after me and Midnight after I revealed we were lovers. Looks like I took your own advice to myself, eh boss? o;

You misunderstand me. Let me try to rephrase, I think it was mostly my fault. It's like this: imagine a world where we wouldn't lose the game if Nova was lynched and we only got one Mafia out of that lynch. Could be anyone, doesn't matter. In that world, the only players left would be you, me, Midnight and Mish, two of which would have to be Mafia. Remember, this is just another hypothetical, because if it happened the Mafia would've won by overrun. Since I am only certain of my own innocence, the remaining pair of mafiosi can be either a) you + Midnight, b) you + Mish or c) Midnight + Mish. And what exactly does this thought experiment prove again? It follows that, given my TRs of you and Midnight, and by way of proof by contradiction, there are two (or even three!) Mafia sitting on Nova's lovebed. This is the best I can do with my current intel, so it doesn't mean you have to fully agree with me.

ugghh, my head is aching

 

I've been trying to write this post for a while but here goes:

Midnight, Nova, and Judge cannot all be Mafia together. At this point there are really only two ways for them to win, to blitz me using my own vote (which they could have done if they had convinced me it would work, they could have ended the game in about... 5 minutes since the new day started) or they lynch off Nova, but Nova is being extremely lynch resistant right now and there isn't much of a chance of him going. Those are the two ways they could win. Nova kills himself and two town, so there would be two town and two Mafia. Even number is overrun.

If they can't be Mafia together then one of them needs to be a town.

Now it's which one:

For Nova Mafia:

Nova could be lynching two towns and securing the game. His partners would be Karuta, or Mish/Korosu. He could have convinced me, Midnight and Judge to kill me to get Karuta instead of killing two town by lynching him, which he hasn't done. This is either because Nova isn't actually Mafia, or because Karuta is Mafia with him and he can't lose Karuta, so now he's going onto Midnight and Judge as both of the townies to die.

This means the combination for a Nova Mafia would have to be, Nova, Karuta, and Mish/Korosu.

For Midnight/Judge Mafia:

Now you have Midnight, Judge, and Mish/Karuta/Korosu is trying to get rid of Nova, Korosu/( and Karuta). Even if they have a Mafia buddy in there, it'll still be 2/2 and Mafia will win.


OTHER:

Midnight/Judge cannot be buddies with Karuta and Korosu because Mafia will lose and they're still trying to lynch Nova.

Midnight/Judge can be buddies with Karuta/Korosu and Mish.



So what do I think is most likely here based on evidence and reads:

Midnight and/or Judge is scum with Karuta and Mish. They're lynching Nova because then two town will die, and only one Mafia will die, making it 2:2 and Mafia will win.

If we lynch both Judge and Midnight and one of them is town, that means the game is at 3:2. Lynching me to get Karuta will make it 2:1, Nova lynches Mish with Korosu and gets 2:0.

If we lynch Judge and Midnight and both are Mafia, then we're pretty much okay. We need to decide whether it's Mish or Karuta. We get Mish first, even if Mish is Town the game is in Lylo again and we just lynch me. I think that's how that works.


Anyway I don't know if any of this **** matters and my head hurts someone help me


Makaze is probably going to get a better image of that basketball gif he used for Marushi when this game is over and put it over my advice

 

Wait, what about Mish + Karuta + Korosu? That's also a thing, you know.

 

You're acknowledging my advantage of experience and then dismissing my judgement off-hand. That's what doesn't add up here.

I really don't see your point here. All this proves is that you've been wishy-washy about your stance on Lovers, and we can't say if that's really for the reasons you specify or if those are just convenient lies after the fact.

 

Yes, I've thought about this too. Unfortunately, none of them are doing anything so I can't judge their actions, but the only thing they could really do is lynch you two, then blitz me. Even though Karuta would die it would be 2 of them alone with Nova.

 

Um.

Brb I have a lot of thread to catch up on.

 

I was really hoping for some more activity today as my activity is going to be really limited tomorrow and the weekend. I may be able to still make some posts but don't expect anything from me that would take a lot of time as I'm going to be quite busy.

Personally from my perspective, lynching Nova seems to be the best option. If I'm right in that Judge and Cal are town (and obviously I'm town confirmed to myself), then that would mean that lynching Nova would guarantee getting 2 mafia. (As with my assumptions it leaves 4 people left and there's 3 mafia, so by lynching 3 it guarantees at least 2)

However that's from my perspective. If you say for example out of me and Judge, there was one mafia and one town (and still assuming Cal is town), lynching Nova would still guarantee at least one mafia member and the game not ending. (Judge did well at deceiving me in that case)

Even in the case of both me and Judge being mafia (which I know is not true but am including for the sake of doing from your perspective), the chances of it hitting the remaining mafia member is still 75% (or 60% if you don't assume Cal is town).

 

If anyone is mafia between Midnight and Judge, I am leaning towards Midnight. For the reasons that Nova made in his case.

I kind of had a feeling about Cal being mafia as well, but it seems like everyone else has townconfirmed her so I guess that's a dead end for now. I suppose that can wait until tomorrow.. if there is a tomorrow! 8|

I can't help but notice that @Korosu hasn't posted? Does that mean she will be modkilled? We need to think about that possibility.[DOUBLEPOST=1470349483][/DOUBLEPOST]Karuta hasn't posted either...

 

Just so you know it's impossible to lynch me and Judge separately. The way the lovers thing has worked out means that if you lynch either one of us, the other dies but nobody else. It's currently impossible to kill us separately. So looking at which one of us is more likely to be mafia is kinda irrelevant. The question is more, do you think there's a higher chance of hitting mafia with me & Judge or Nova, Karuta & Korosu. Remember we're in lylo so if both me & Judge are town (which I think is the case) and we get lynched, town loses. Likewise if all of the other three are town, town loses.

 

Yeah, I know. It's a question of whether I think you and Judge are mafia together or if I think the Nova - Karuta - Korosu love triangle holds two or more mafia.

I don't have the time this evening to look through everyone posts.. again. But I will be around all of tomorrow pretty much. :E

 

It is also possible that it could be a mix. The fact I think Judge is town doesn't prove it, I'm aware that it is possible that I'm wrong and he's mafia, making us one mafia and one town. But you've just got to figure out which lynch gives us the best chance at getting the most mafia.

 

Part and parcel of my argument is that there are three potential outcomes - My group has two Mafiosi, the Mid-Judge group has two Mafiosi, or there's one in each - and that in two of those cases, lynching someone in my group is the poorer option. If we vote one of Karuta or Korosu and miss Mafia, we lose. If we vote for me and one of them is Town, we're worse off, even if one of Midnight and Judge is Town, because it's another two-for-one trade instead of a one-for-one. We can't afford to keep scraping by like this, or we'll lose anyway.

 

Judge is dangerous, yes, he was clearedish as town from the beginning and no one could really touch him. And a confirmed town, like me, is bad for the Mafia, because that's someone they can't frame. But it's also bad for the town, it may be a Mafia in disguise. And I think Judge is just that.

I don't know if Midnight is the second, but if she isn't it's either two in Nova's group or Mish and one. We can deal with that when we get there. At this point, I find it hard to trust Nova, however the logic for Judge I've seen from Nova and that myself concluded outweigh that. So it's time to vote for sure now.

##Vote: Midnight Star

 

♥ DAY 3: VOTE COUNT 3 ♥​

Midnight Star (2) - Ars Nova, Calxiyn

Not voting (5) - Judge Sunrose, Karuta, Korosu, Midnight Star, Mish​

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to hammer.

Day 3 ends at 12 PM EST/EDT on August 6. There are approximately 23 hours remaining.