Mafia [Mafia] The Masquerade in Salem ~ GAME OVER (MAFIA WINS)

Discussion in 'The Playground' started by Ars Nova, Mar 12, 2014.

  1. Jiku Neon Kingdom Keeper

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    Statistically speaking the civilians or townsfolk or whoever have an informational disadvantage from the mafia and only have a 1/4 chance of hitting mafia on a the first day with a random and unanimous guess. But since this game basically set up such that they only gain information after each thing is done there's no way of telling who to go for next only if your decision was a good one. Voting habits can be helpful but not as much as people probably believe. The cop and doctor mechanics to bring in more information but the cop has close to the same chance of investigating a mafia member as the random unanimous decision has 1/4 so the information you garner from that decision is going to be the same and the doctor only has a .25% chance of his job mattering on turn one and while this number increases as the game goes on it's almost never going above 1%. Basically, townies and cop take probably 3-4 days to find or kill their first mafia and they lose 1 per day to mafia plus the whiffed lynchings which add up to another 1 per day so they lose 4 to 6 townsfolk by this time. This is all on the fly and by the odds so it's totally possible to have all five mafia get lynched in a row or to hit only townies the whole game.

    Long story short, just pick randomly until you start to see patterns you can argue in the votes. The game favors mafia slightly over the townies but no one is ever going to give any information that could help you ID them as one or the other in this thread because you can't actually pick anything from mannerisms or word choice. It's not like picking out a lie about something that's actually got something to do with someone as a person, their role has nothing to do with them or anything about them.

    Anyhow, because I'm sticking to my word about randomness I'm going to count down my accusations starting with number 19 Vote: [Spike]
     
  2. ShibuyaGato Transformation

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    Mafia always starts out as a popularity contest tbh. No one wants to lynch anyone until an unpopular name gets brought up...
     
  3. . : tale_wind Ice to see you!

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    Somehow I expected more dilly-dally before the first accusation. Huh.

    *claps hands three times* Heeeere, Mafia... I won't hurt you...
     
  4. burnitup Still the Best 1973

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    Wait, what kind of mafia are these guys anyway? Are they Italian, Russian, Irish, Amish, or what?
     
  5. Spike H E R O

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    For all your talk about numbers and probability, friend, picking out the guy with the mafiosi-theme sig+avvy right from the get-go kind of demeans your statement, don't you think?

    Anyway, I don't like the idea of picking people off randomly. I'm going to wait for more people to get a word out so I can make an assessment.
     
  6. ShibuyaGato Transformation

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    The problem with that is that no member of the mafia would do anything to give themselves away -- at least, I know I wouldn't.

    At this point, we're gonna have to pick a random person and hope.
     
  7. Spike H E R O

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    Oh no, you misunderstand: I just need an assessment for the fun of making an assessment; I don't need it to be a conclusive one. What's the fun in pin the tail on the donkey if you just stick the tack on the first surface you find, know what I mean?
     
  8. ShibuyaGato Transformation

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    Ah. I suppose that's fair. And either way, we have until Tuesdaythe end of the day to decide.

    Still, I take these games way too seriously...
     
  9. . : tale_wind Ice to see you!

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    ... *twiddles fingers*

    ...

    Sooo...are we just gonna dilly-dally until Tuesday when we have to make decisions, or...?
     
  10. DigitalAtlas Don't wake me from the dream.

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    Alright, let's look at the population here and see who's posted regarding our little mafia problem...

    • Soma
    • . : tale_wind
    • Senpai
    • DigitalAtlas
    • burnitup
    • cstar
    • Cat~
    • Marushi
    • Spike
    • Jiku Neon
    • Hyumongasaur
    So if you were a mafia, your goal here would be to try and stay below the radar or sway suspicion so no one could possibly expect you, right? I'd say so. So let's look at some posts...

    Marushi broke the silence and hasn't really added much. Soma showed up and made a snide remark. Hyumongasaur liked a post, but didn't talk which is very under the radar like behavior. We should remember this. Jiku made herself stand out of the crowd quite a bit here, she took charge and even put forth a vote- this could make her important as this is a role that needs to be filled but it could also be the role of someone in the gang to keep us making their efforts easier. Cat~ just kind of stated a fact to us, and Burnitup and Tail_Wind made jokes. Spike was accused and thus made a defense for his life- his plea for rationally deducing our first lynch based on the interaction of a group deduction could be seen as both intellectual and visceral. Cat~ tried to steer us away from the path of rationalization in favor of throwing a dart and praying it hits the bullseye, something I'm not fond of myself and find could be an indicator later in the game. Tail_Wind made another joke, and I summarized the thread thus far and pointed at who could be suspicious... standing out like someone poured a bucket of red paint on me while standing in a field of fresh cut grass. So I'm probably boned.

    That said, if Jiku is mafia, letting her live the first round to take charge won't be so harmful as we need someone to contest with us and provide us with confidence in our decisions. Spike's call for rationalization is very much appreciated so if he's mafia and Jiku threw a bullseye then we can survive a round of him encouraging our thinking as well.

    That said *points* TAIL_WIND is acting very impatiently. He just enjoys all the killing, Snake. I think he could be both bad for our group and quite possibly trying to lead us into a rash decision.

    Vote: . : Tail_Wind
     
  11. . : tale_wind Ice to see you!

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    ...Well then. o_o
     
  12. Hyuge ✧ [[ Fairy Queen ]]

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    The Amish have a mafia? Why do I find that hard to believe?
    I'm just a Like - Whore, what can I say?
    But anyway, Jiku, James, and Spike all make valid points. However, given your relationship I feel like Nova would have easily made you a member of the Mafioso, James; but Tales's overly casual posts have me wary and I think he'll be my first vote as well.
    Vote: . : tale_wind
     
  13. . : tale_wind Ice to see you!

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    B-but I was just trying to diffuse the tension ;__;
     
  14. DigitalAtlas Don't wake me from the dream.

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    Someone's gotta be the first, and your impatience is a two way street! *still pointing*
     
  15. Ars Nova Just a ghost.

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    Vote Totals (or Votals)
    • Spike - 1 (Jiku Neon)
    • . : tale_wind - 2 (DigitalAtlas, Hyumongasaur)

    Also, I find it prudent to point out that team selection was fully randomized - personal feelings do not play into role assignments.

    Carry on~
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2014
  16. Hyuge ✧ [[ Fairy Queen ]]

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    It's rude to point fingers.
     
  17. . : tale_wind Ice to see you!

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    Fair enough. But I'm not gonna take this lying down, y'hear? Since we're already apparently moving to the voting phase, I vote...

    Jiku Neon!

    First to accuse? The Mafia does want as few townspeople as possible, so why not start eliminating early on? The "cold hard statistics" approach wouldn't be a bad way to mask the bloodthirst, appearing to the rest of the townspeople as reasonable and rational.
     
  18. Spike H E R O

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    Bro, I'd follow you to the ends of this Earth... T^T

    [​IMG]
     
  19. jafar custom title

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    I'm just gonna jump on the bandwagon

    Vote: talewind
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 29, 2014
  20. burnitup Still the Best 1973

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    Vote Jiku
    Yeah...
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2014