Mafia [MAFIA] Lovers Mafia [GAME OVER, MAFIA VICTORY]

Tbh, I haven't been feeling that great today so I've just been passing out periodically, which is why I keep falling off the face of the earth haha.

Anyway, after reading Al's rebuttal, to me it seems sort of half-sincere. The answers seemed more calculated and thought about then genuine.The tone I'm getting off of it seems more calculated and thought out then a genuine "hey I wasn't here.". I think keeping an eye on Al and seeing if he can make his own case WITHOUT using anything people have already said, or for someone we haven't talked about much would make me change my mind, slightly.


Marushi was correct in her post about Splodge's defense not holding that much weight.

Even though Al's still on my scum radar I do agree with him about Splodge playing extremely defensively, maybe even panicked. Splodge responded about Al AFTER Al started pointing the finger at him, which makes me wonder if he's only parroting what we've already said about Al because he wants us to focus on Al instead of him.

I've read through everything else but instead of replying to quote I think I'm just going to go through everyone in the game so far.





Nova:

Nova hasn't posted too much, but I was glad that Cstar voted him earlier. This is because other then Makaze he is probably the most experienced player and we should all be keeping an eye on him. He may be the hardest person to read this game if he is indeed Mafia.


Cstar:

Cstar is flying under the radar similar to last game, but now she is starting to ask people questions and participate more. This could either be because she's Mafia and doesn't want to make the same mistake twice, or because she's town and she genuinely wants to break out of the impression most of us got from last game.

Jiku:

Jiku reads as Mafia to me, and it isn't so much because of the numbers, I think keeping track of that kind of stuff is helpful to an extent, but I would like an explanation on why those numbers in those cases are helpful. Is it because people who post less and change their votes more are suspicious? Is it simply to show how active players are being? Were their any games before this one that "proved" that this kind of number system does show some accuate results.

Judge:

I'm on the fence about Judge this game. He's not as strong as he was last game, however, last game he DID have the cop role and that could have been responsible for it.

Karuta:

I geniually think that Karuta is just new and trying to figure out the game. Now, if we're also going to say that about Splodge and Korosu, notice how different Karuta and their attitudes are. Splodge is now defensive, Korosu fell into that vein as well, but Karuta seems actually sort of confused in some of his posts.

Korosu:

Since @tribbles asked anyway, Korosu hasn't said a lot but what they have said generally hasn't been entirely helpful. And if you're an unhelpful town you're practically helping the Mafia. I would like to see her post more before deciding about her.

Marushi:

Marushi seems pretty pro-town, but I don't want anyone falling into the trap that could be "If I act as pro-town as I did last game, then they won't suspect me". However, unlike Al, Marushi is still making strong cases, which leds me to believe she is town, for now.

Midnight:

Midnight is trying to be more assertive this game since her indecisiveness punished her last. We haven't seen too much from her but I'm hoping we'll get more posts in the future.


Mish:

Mish seems to have taken the advice she was given last round. She is a lot more vocal and is posting a lot more, which leads me to believe that she is town.

Saxima:

I think we were confusing Saxima's personality with thinking she was suspicious. She's changed her language in her posts now and though I don't have an opinion on her yet, I think we can clear out that she was acting "strangely" before when we're comparing her to her current content

 

Its hard to say. I'd like to see more before I form a good opinion on her, but right now its leaning towards positive.

It was mostly this post by Karuta that made me think "that's pretty honest"

He seemed quite taken aback by the whole thing, and it didn't seem like a mafioso getting surprised by being caught out, but by a townie who didn't realise his opinion held that much weight.

Basically, I want gut reads with a little something behind them. Even if its the tiniest thing, like something they said in one post. Its when you post just lists that I get a little sus. I'm aware Karuta did this too, but focusing on the lists is because I was already unsure on Saxima and Tribbles, in which case, I might just be grabbing at something to call it a "reason", when its really just a feeling, I don't really know. If someone I had a town read on posted only a list, I wouldn't think much of it, besides it being not that helpful, but its when someone I'm not sure about or read as mafia that I get concerned.

As a sidenote, I don't think I'l be getting too many opportunities to post tomorrow, so this might be the last you hear form me in a while.

 

Al talking about "Town Players" in the third person concerns me a little bit. It could just be a phrasing choice, but I found last game most people said "us" when talking about the members of the town alignment... since we were town. After that Al says "We came to the consensus as a Town", but why is adding the Town part relevant? Is this implying that the members of the Mafia didn't agree? Or that the people who didn't agree are member of the Mafia? And if so, who were those members who said that we should be looking at the lovers, because the way this sentence is made it sort of seems like Al's implying the people who disagreed read as Mafia.

However, I do agree with Al that any kind of theory on Judge's part may change the game, especially looking at what he did last game.

Al's latest post still just seems too constructed. He seems to be thinking about too much about his wording and writing, and he spends a lot of time depending himself more then making an actual theory. And instead of making an actual theory he's asking me more questions (which I actually answered right after accidentally, so my bad?). He isn't the only one with questions about my activity though so I'm willing to let THAT slide. Everything else though seems very thought out, and not in a good way.

 

For my thoughts on @Korosu, I think she's fine, though there hasn't been much to go off of, but I sympathize a little as a newer player. Her full innocence remains to be seen though.

 

I'm going to discount what you said about about making my own case. To start with, my case on Tribbles was primarily self constructed and then upon going through, I found that other people agreed. Secondly, what you're saying is that I'm going to be judged on whether I happen to be around at such a time when a tell is given off and then I have to reply to it before someone else does? I think we can agree that such a demand is unreasonable.

I can confirm that this was not the implication intended. I was simply stating that we agreed as a group (Or as a Town which I wrote, writing in the relevant vernacular) on where we stand on the issue. People can disagree with the view that we shouldn't be lover speccing all they want, that doesn't make them inherently Town or Mafia.

I want to point something in your post out. 'He spends a lot of time defending himself more than making an actual theory'? An accusation was levelled at me, and so I responded. I even had my theory. I presented it and thus far it seems strong. In fact, I feel as if my suspicions have only strengthened at this point and people seem to agree with me on Tribbles. Your point there is lacking. I've acted in nothing but our interests. I've commented on and reacted to everything that I have felt is necessary to. And that is the best that I can do for the Town.

Which, even if you are still somehow suspicious, is still better than people who post rarely and give little information when they do.

Now, it's very early in the morning here so I shall be signing off for now. I'll respond to anything I need to when I can. I may even have a case for you, we'll see how it pans out.

 

Mish got it:

Were it not for that fact, I'd maintain my initial read of him being Mafia.

Thing is, wagons are probably one of the Mafia's biggest weapons. It's one of the methods they're supposed to use in order to make up for the loss of the ability to nightkill. Aaaaand I just realized something that was under my nose the whole time as I was typing this. Turns out that taking a backseat is not a feasible option for the Mafia in this type of game, I'd wager. Huh. Not exactly a ground-breaking revelation, I know; 's more of a passing thought than anything.

I believe so. Mak never said anything about a number cap iirc. Here's a quote from the interest check thread:

Imagine that A loves (<3) B, and C <3 A. Nothing in the rules prevent another player (D, E, F, etc...) from also loving A, from what I can tell. It's a statistical long shot, but could happen nonetheless.

She's new to the game, she posts very little, with currently only 4 posts under her belt (and I'd say a couple of those wouldn't even qualify for the 5-post rule, depending on how strict Mak is). If this keeps up, she's supposed to receive a warning, not a modkill, mind you. Lastly, if we were to apply my bus theory here, she could be Mafia alongside Karuta, but I don't think this case is very solid.

Aaaaaaa, guys stahp. This is nothing like last time; the biggest reason that plan worked was because I had the cop role and tried to do something creative with it. I'm not the cop anymore, so I don't have any magical powers left. this sucks btw

Sorry to disappoint, but my bus theory is very flimsy and somewhat WIFOM-inducing, if you look at it closely. :c I only said it because I didn't want to leave that stone unturned, nothing more.

 

This setup is open and no one can have more than two lovers.

 

Kay so it's really late and I don't have a lot of time to post. I've been trying to keep a log, and I fell really far behind, so I've spent most of the past few hours trying to catch up. I still haven't caught up yet, but I need to sleep, so I wanted to post before I left.

I'm currently reading Calxiyn as town, along with Saxima and possibly Judge. For Mafia, I'm still rather suspicious of Splodge (though I'm becoming more and more uncertain as time goes on) and also Mish, Al, Karuta, and possibly Nova. Leaving me unsure about Korosu, Tribbles, Jiku, and Midnight.

This is all subject to change as time goes on, and I'll try to find reasons for some of these reads tomorrow, though I'll say now that they're mostly based on gut reads.[DOUBLEPOST=1469847660][/DOUBLEPOST]Sorry, meant to ##Unvote Splodge for the night, since I don't see a reason to keep my vote on him any longer at this time. Will vote again tomorrow.

 

This... definitely changes things. Now I have something I can take to the drawing board.

 

Blugh so now not only is my sight slightly fuzzy but my comp keeps freezing. GONNA BE A FUN RIDE :L

Unfortunately I have yet to ISO anyone like I said I would, but I hope to get that done tomorrow when my eyes are fresh (hopefully literally).

 

♥ CAN YOU FEEL THE LOVE? VOTE COUNT 5 ♥​

Karuta (2) - Korosu, Jiku Neon
Splodge (2) - Saxima, Ars Nova
tribbles (2) - Splodge, al215
Jiku Neon (1) - Judge Sunrose
Saxima (1) - Karuta

Not voting (5) - Calxiyn, Marushi, Midnight Star, Mish, tribbles​

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to hammer.

Day 1 ends at 12 PM EST/EDT on July 31st. There are approximately 1 days, 11 hours and 30 remaining.

 

I unvoted Nova a while ago but since you missed it I'll just ##Unvote: Ars Nova again

 

Corrected.

 

Umm so people wanted better reads off me so I've just been through the thread with the player list on a word doc and have been making notes about everyone as I go. This is what I ended up with.

al215 – not giving off quite as strong town vibe as previous game

Ars Nova – could go either way. Posts are informative and helpful but I’m not getting a town feel. May be mafia.

Calxiyn – bit suspicious of, can’t put my finger on why though. (I guess that’s what a gut feeling is xD)

tribbles (cstar) - ummm

Jiku Neon – NEEDS TO POST MORE AND NOT JUST STATISTICS. I’m suspicious of Jiku as statistics are soo easy to hide behind (though obviously I’ve also done statistics a lot of games and I’ve been town) but her posts themselves just give off a null read (almost robotic) and don’t tell me anything.

Judge Sunrose – town? Seems very worried about the fact that we start at Lylo. Also needs to be careful of WIFOM arguments and lovers speccing.

Karuta – not sure. I liked how clear their reads post was though.

Korosu – NEEDS TO POST MORE

Marushi – town (despite seeming to me less actively pro-town than before I actually get a much stronger town vibe off her than I did last game, strange.)

Mish – mafia? (why is it that as soon as I put someone down as possibly mafia I start doubting myself?)

Saxima – I have suspicions but a lot of the things that make my suspicious could easily be down to her being fairly new to this. I’d advise her not to suspect people just because everyone else does, that just leads to bandwagonning and isn’t great.

Splodge – bit suspicious of but at the same time the bandwagoning on them is making me uneasy and that’s making me think they actually might not be mafia. (Is that WIFOM?) I think the initial thing with possibly having only one lover was nothing and people read far too much into it, though that obviously doesn’t make them innocent.


Okay so my conclusion from this is that this fence is quite high and very hard to get off of. I think I’ve made progress but I’m still clinging to it quite a bit and am not going very far away from it. xD (ie I'm still finding it difficult to come out and say I think this person is mafia.)

 

I'll try my best to post more. Work and afk stuff is consuming me right now but I intend to meet the minimum post requirement or exceed it. As mentioned by some people, I openly admit I'm nervous. some of you are terrifying to me.

His reasoning for being nervous is fair and I can sympathize a little. I'm still going to wait a little while longer for more posts from him before possibly changing my vote. However, reading your other posts, I can agree on the possibility of tribbles and Splodge being in cahoots with one another. I'd like to point out they never responded to your belief and then one of them tried to shift the attention on another player. I may be swayed to vote for Splodge or tribbles yet. I'll wait till I see more posts.

It was interesting to read Judge's defense of Splodge but as mentioned by him, it seems a little WIFOM and not that strong. While I can understand trying to read a player off previous games, this concept/version is entirely new and seems Al and Cal are trying a little too hard to see fault in his posting. I admit, I could be wrong about this but eh.

As for love spec (I'm aware I'm doing posts out of order, please bare me with me, I'm tired) - May be a little WIFOM unless you have a good enough case against a player and give a convincing argument as to why you think 'player is tied by a red string of fate to player b'. I guess we'll see as the game progresses.

I may post readings later - If I wake up ;_; - Feel free to give me a nudge (within reason)

 

Okay, so I said I'd try to write up some reasons for my reads, I'll go ahead and do so now, the same way Cal did above, and I'll start with my town reads.

Spoiler

Calxiyn: I think that Calxiyn is probably town. She's done a few suspicious things herself here and there, and I don't agree with everything she says, but this is also very similar to how she played last game. Not to say that someone can't act the same and really be Mafia, but she just strikes me as town.

Saxima: I'm feeling a bit wary about this one, because I feel the same way about Saxima that I felt about Mixt last game. Saxima started out a little off, but when things were pointed out to her, she worked to do better, and she has. She's tried to make cases, she's called other people out on inactivity, she seems to be doing her genuine best to contribute. That makes me think she's town, but that's exactly what had me on Mixt's side at different points in the last game, so this one isn't as strong a feeling as the one about Cal.

Judge: This vibe is even weaker than the Saxima one, I suppose I would put Judge more at 'positive neutral' as opposed to 'town,' upon further reflection. He appears to be helpful... But really, his posts feel a little thin. There's nothing I would say that makes me suspect him, and also we have to remember that in the last game, Judge not only had the cop role, but he also was a sub and came in when there was already information to look at. I'm willing to read Judge as town-like neutral and see where things go from here.

Now onto the Mafia reads.

Spoiler

With Splodge... Splodge is a hard case. Some people have said that he's playing more like a new townie, and have held Blaine up as an example, but I kind of feel like Splodge is acting more suspicious than Blaine did. If anyone's acting like Blaine, I'd say it's Karuta, but more on him later. There's been lots of evidence floating around about Splodge, from his 'slip' which could just be an innocent mistake but still seems pretty telling to me, to his aggressiveness, which reminds me of Princess <3's old games when he was town, to his indecisiveness and waffling, which tbh is very hard not to do, especially in your first game. All in all... I think he could still be Mafia, and there are more tells on him than on anyone else, but he could also be town, and like other people have pointed out, the wagon on him is very suspicious. But you're right that such theorizing gets into WIFOM, because yeah, what if the Mafia are bussing Splodge to off a townie, but what if the Mafia are also agreeing that it's suspicious to get us to back off a fellow member? XD That kind of thinking is gonna drive us in circles, and tbh, I think I'll say what was said before: Theorizing about Mafia plans might actually give them a few ideas, so yeah. XD

With Mish, it came on slowly, but it's here now. I think Mish might be Mafia. It's true that she always plays like this, but that includes times in the past when she was Mafia. Mish's posts read a bit off to me. She seems to be trying to help... but if you look at the content, there seems to be an underlying sinister tone to things. She appears to have had it out for Splodge and Tribbles for most of the day, while she also appears to be on Jiku's side. She's the one who explained Jiku's reasoning when we were all suspicious of Jiku's Karuta vote, and she also, when listing some people she considered inactive, mentioned Jiku but said she was willing to let Jiku slide because she struck her as someone who would post more substantial posts later, and focused on Tribbles instead. She's tended to investigate in groups, holding two players up and instead of suspecting them based on their own actions, clears one and condemns the other based on how allegedly suspicious they are in relation to each other. She held up Tribbles and Jiku, and said she'd let Jiku slide because Tribbles was 'more suspicious.' She also later held up Al and Tribbles, and cleared Al as probably town because Tribbles was 'more suspicious.' This rings as a sign of trouble, to me. It's a good way for Mafia to bring up their associates while not really putting them in much danger. A good way to hide something is by causing a distraction so they can slip away in the smoke. By saying "HEY LOOK AT TRIBBLES SHE'S ACTING SUSPICIOUS!" Mish could be trying to help fellow Mafia slide under the radar. Aside from this, Mish has not made a single vote, and that's worrisome to me. Even Jiku has voted at least once. iirc, the only other person who hasn't voted is Midnight, and with her, it's a bit more understandable. Why isn't Mish voting?

With Al, most of what's been bothering me has already been said by other players, mainly Cal. Here, though, is where I get into not agreeing with everything Cal says... I agree that his posts seem too constructed, too planned, but that could just be because he's putting a lot of work into things. I know that I try to construct well thought out posts. But his tone also has been bothering me throughout most of the game. I don't agree about the whole 'not making cases' and 'parroting others' thing, though, because as Al said in his rebuttal, it's hardly fair to expect someone to be ahead of the curve all the time, and he did do most of the case building on Tribbles. So I guess, with Al, it's still more of a gut read than anything else. The tone of his posts are what's getting to me, not really any specific tell.

Karuta is in sort of the same boat as Splodge, but a bit less so. Karuta's posts are, to me, coming across as a bit defensive, with not much substance, and when called out on it, he basically is saying 'deal with it.' That seems a bit suspicious, so I included him in the list because I'm keeping an eye on him. But there are far fewer 'tells' in Karuta's posts, and like I said in the case about Splodge, Karuta seems far more like Blaine than Splodge does, so I think this might just be how Karuta plays.

And finally, Nova. This one is more a negative-neutral read than a Mafia read, Because Judge is right, Nova's not really posting all that much as far as substance goes, he's mainly been calling on other people, or saying he's thinking about stuff and will wait till this or that person posts to see how things hold up. However, I will say that in the past as a Mod, I think I might remember Nova saying something about all the old wall-posts being somewhat unusual for a Mafia game and that perhaps in the future people will learn to post more succinctly (lol, thinking I could ever make a short post :p) and we've also never played with Nova before, so perhaps this is just his playstyle and we all just expected something different. I want to note that since Nova does have the most experience, both as Town and Mafia, I am very wary of discounting his playstyle as suspicious just due to alleged lack of content. For all we know, Nova's posts are the Mafia norm, and we're the ones playing strangely, not the other way around. But I still would like to hear more from him by way of a case or a few reads, so he's on my list as negative-neutral.

Then there are the people I'm not sure about.

Spoiler

Korosu seems to me to be a townie still learning to play... But she's not posted suspiciously enough to make a negative read, like Splodge or Karuta, but also not town-like enough to make a positive read like Saxima. Her posts, even the ones where she's trying to make cases or reads, all feel devoid of substance, like this post, wherein she points out that at the time of typing, I still have a vote on Karuta, (I didn't, btw) and then thanks me for playing advice. I don't understand the point of her pointing out my vote on Karuta, even if I had still had one on her. She didn't ask any questions about it, she didn't make any sort of case about my vote on Karuta, she just... mentioned it and moved on. Why? Korosu's posts have things like this in them a lot, where it's like she's trying to be helpful, but doesn't really say anything worth repeating. But like I said, there's not enough there for me to read her as negative, because to me, she hasn't been coming across nearly as defensive as Karuta or Splodge, but that might just be me reading the posts differently than other people. I know some people have mentioned that Korosu has been defensive; could one of you provide some evidence of this? Because I'm not sure how I feel about Korosu, so it would be really helpful.

Tribbles, mostly, seems like an unsure read to me mostly due to the cases being built against her by Al and Mish, both of whom I'm suspicious of atm. Tribbles has been a little quiet, but I think she's played like this in town roles before, too, not only last game where she turned out to be Mafia. Besides, the tone of some of Tribbles' posts come across, to me, as the posts of someone who's trying to break free of the suspicion that's lingering from last game, rather than someone who's trying to keep sliding under the radar. Besides, this might be getting into a bit of WIFOM, but Tribbles strikes me as the kind of person who knows we'd be watching her after last game, and knows we'd be careful about inactives, and so would actively try to post more in order to avoid that kind of suspicion. It just doesn't really make sense for her to not have very many opinions or posts, and risk being suspected as much as she already has been. But like I said, that might be getting into WIFOM. I would like to see more from her, which is why she's not a town read, but I do get a sort of townie vibe from her posts, which is why she's not a Mafia read.

I've already talked about Jiku before, and she hasn't posted since, so there's not much new to say. The longer she goes without posting, the more suspicious I will be of her, but at this early stage in the game, there's not much there for me to be suspicious of except the lack of content, so I think we should wait on Jiku for now.

And finally, Midnight. With Midnight, I'm starting to lean towards townie, because when she does post, she posts helpful, substantial contributions, and often tries to back them up with evidence, even if she's not sure about them. She's vastly improved from her last game, and I'm looking forward to seeing more from her in the future. But the reasons I'm still unsure about her alignment are as follows: She hasn't been posting as often as she usually does, and she hasn't voted yet. Those aren't hard tells in her case, I think, but they've definitely kept me from reading her as town.

So that explains why I feel the way I do about people. Bearing Judge's Splodge theory in mind, I would recommend we hold off on that and focus a little more on someone who has slipped under the radar so far. For the reasons I list in my post above:

##Vote: Mish

 

♥ CAN YOU FEEL THE LOVE? VOTE COUNT 6 ♥​

Karuta (2) - Korosu, Jiku Neon
Splodge (2) - Saxima, Ars Nova
tribbles (2) - Splodge, al215
Jiku Neon (1) - Judge Sunrose
Mish (1) - Marushi
Saxima (1) - Karuta

Not voting (4) - Calxiyn, Midnight Star, Mish, tribbles​

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to hammer.

Day 1 ends at 12 PM EST/EDT on July 31st. There are approximately 22 hours and 30 minutes remaining.

 

Feeling much better today. I'm attempting to do some solving in addition to flat reads. But first off, someone shot to the top of my list after an ISO:

##Vote: Calxiyn

She has done nothing but speculate about people's grammar and the conditions of the game, successfully avoiding having to give strong reads and put concrete statements out there for the record. It's safe play. Too safe.

al215 is looking pretty bad right now for similar reasons. He's managed to say a lot without really saying anything. He looks slightly better because of his willingness to dialogue with many different players, which is traditionally only something Mafia do when they have no choice. Then again, a lot of that dialogue is direct response, which is much easier.

For full disclosure, Splodge's answer was ok. Not good, not bad, just ok. It's not enough to make him a Town read, but it's enough to take him off my priority list until I see some flips.

Here's the crux, though: Cal is not teammates with Splodge or Al. By the same token, they're probably not Lovers either. Pointing out a grammar slip, real or not, is pretty much a hard confirm that you're not that person's teammate; if you were, you'd either hope nobody notices it or not see a problem with it. To head off WiFoM arguments: No, I don't think any of them would be brave enough to attempt this as a misdirection, especially not twice.

So once we know Cal's alignment, we can infer the other two with reasonable certainty. Either Cal is Mafiosi picking on hapless Town, or she's Town who correctly pegged the errors of two scum. I'm leaning towards the former right now, but the fact remains that any of these lynches would be immensely helpful in solving the game.

 

These are the only scenarios @Marushi that I could read Korosu as being defensive, but I personally wouldn't actually call those posts as being defensive. She seems to me to more be explaining her abscene and reasons for being unable to post. I can see though, why someone might read that as being defensive, but it seems to me to be a bit suspect. The biggest point of contention with me is with her "it was random" response, saying it again even after people were suspecting her for it. It doesn't exactly make me think that she's mafia, as I don't see why a mafioso would draw attention to themsevles, but I could certainly read it as being mafia, even if its not my intial thoughts.

 

For clarity's sake, since it hasn't been as much of a talking point, this is where Cal pointed out Al's grammar: