Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

[ COP MODE: OFF ]

I don't mean to sound picky, but this doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. You say you believe one of them is mafia while the other is town. But then, by process of elimination, assuming you are Town, the rest of the scum team would invariably consist of Cstar and Mixt. So why not consider them?

Not only that, but seeing as you're in the 'danger pool', and, again, assuming you're Town, that would mean you're ahead of us Confirmies (lol) in terms of info. Should be more than enough to give you a solid basis for your suspicions, 's what I'm getting at.

 

Alright, you guys. With the new information, I'm still on Midnight. Firstly, as lots of people, myself included, have brought up, her playing style has been really detached, and her logs really just feel a bit fixed. She's been ambiguous and wishy-washy through the whole game, and even recently, while trying not to be undecided, started off by saying she was really tempted to do so, and mainly suspects Cal, Mish, and Ghost. She also in that post claims to think I'm town, but also sows seeds of doubt, painting me as a really clever Mafioso who just has her convinced. Her response to Judge's Fake Reveal are also worthy of note: In her first post after the reveal she basically just ignores him, and then disappears until today, still after Cal. Her ignoring Judge is important, because do you have any idea how confused the Mafioso must have been at Judge's reveal? Especially if we assume Mixt is most likely town. For a Townie to claim cop but then lie about a Mafioso, that had to just... I mean, I would have been so completely and utterly baffled if I were in their shoes. XD

So Midnight and Cstar both kind of just ignored it at first, only acknowledging it a little before disappearing. Perhaps trying to figure out what on earth he was up to.

Mish and Ghost both just seemed to accept it, however, so that's kind of interesting for them... However, Mish then puts me and Ghost on Mixt's potential team, worthy of note there. And when Cstar returns, she also puts Ghost on the list, along with Cal and 'potentially' me. Bear in mind, this is all still before the True Reveal. Mish starts up the whole 'Deadline approaching' scare, and Cstar ends up confused over why Judge wants to extend the day.

Later on, Midnight brings up the fact that we all though Cal was the cop, and begins to question her about it, and later, Cstar does the same thing. This is telling because they might be trying to figure out exactly how extensive Judge's lie is, and as Cal still seemed a touch suspicious of Judge at times, perhaps they were trying to determine who the REAL cop was and figure out what the heck was going on.

Then, after Judge's True reveal, Midnight seems surprised, yes, but if you look at her wording, it actually seems to be a bit more surprised at the what he was doing as opposed to his misdirect on Mixt, which is what most of us confirmed Townies seemed most shocked by.

To be fair, Mish seemed genuinely surprised at the True Reveal as well, but this can be acted, so it's not a hard tell.

Midnight voted Ghost without any hesitation, admittedly to consolidate a lynch. While she might have been hoping that we'd either see this as a Townie trusting the cop, or if she knew she was likely to be the lynch target and was voting Ghost to perhaps get us to think that Ghost is Mafia by pretending to try to get us to think Ghost was Town (A trap-trap. We know it's a trap so we don't fall for it, but she knows we know it's a trap so she intentionally sets it up that way in a last ditch effort) I think the earlier evidence puts Ghost as the most likely to be town of the group.

for perspective, all three of the other unconfirmed have claimed Ghost in a Mafia read throughout the posts since Judge's Fake Reveal.

This isn't as extensive of a post as I would like, but I'm trying to give them the chance to respond before they have to go.

 

All right, my mafia reads are as follows-

Cstar
Mixt

Midnight and Ghost I'm not certain about, but I would lean towards Midnight being mafia. I know that some of you are leaning more towards Mixt being town, so I think we should lynch Cstar tonight.

##Unvote: Ghost
##Vote: Cstar

 

I have no idea what to say. That was a crafty move there Judge. I can't even put into words.

Anyway if Mixt is Town (???), Me, Marushi, Cat and Judge are confirmed, we have Mish, Cstar, Midnight and Ghost. One of them is innocent, obviously, and I'm leaning to that one being Mish or Cstar.

##Unvote: Mixt

I still say go for either Ghost or Midnight. It's basically a 1/4 chance of one of them being town, and statistically they both could be Mafia?

Sorry, I guess I'm really sort of confused right now xD not confused like I don't understand but if anything in this game could surprise me, it was this whole thing[DOUBLEPOST=1468104150][/DOUBLEPOST]I have no idea what to say. That was a crafty move there Judge. I can't even put into words.

Anyway if Mixt is Town (???), Me, Marushi, Cat and Judge are confirmed, we have Mish, Cstar, Midnight and Ghost. One of them is innocent, obviously, and I'm leaning to that one being Mish or Cstar.

##Unvote: Mixt

I still say go for either Ghost or Midnight. It's basically a 1/4 chance of one of them being town, and statistically they both could be Mafia?

Sorry, I guess I'm really sort of confused right now xD not confused like I don't understand but if anything in this game could surprise me, it was this whole thing

 

So I totally meant to vote for Midnight in my earlier post, but now with votes on a few other people, I'd say I'm willing to consolidate another lynch a bit later in the day. I want to wait to give Ghost and Cstar a chance to speak before we lynch anyone for sure.

 

I have to head to bed and I want to vote before I do, I know more discussion would be nice but we're hard pressed.

I think I want to go for Midnight. She instantly votes for Ghost, and it could be that she did that to rid ghost of suspicion or put on suspicion all together. The third option is she's town and Ghost is Mafia but I don't think that's the case. I'm pretty sure it's the first two.

I'm weary about ghost being town but at this point though, I honestly trust Maru and Cat, and so if either of you want me to change my vote I'll go along with you guys and pray.

##Vote: Midnight Star

 

Okay, cool, I agree with you about Midnight. I do believe she should be tonight's lynchee.

And I think that Ghost is likely to be town, but I could swap her out with Mish if I were given enough evidence.

 

I'm down to make Midnight tonight's lynchee as well. If I remember correctly, Ghost was a common vote among most of our current mafia suspects, so I get the feeling either the mafia see her as a weak link or she's innocent.

I'll just upvote her at the moment, but NO ONE ELSE DO SO we still have time to debate for now. If anyone has objections then bring them up.

##Vote: Midnight Star

 

Well I don't know how I convince you otherwise. I feel really bad for being so bad at this. At least once my role is confirmed, it'll narrow down the choices a lot. I know I've been pretty useless this day phase. I'm really really sorry guys.

 

Don't feel bad. If you're town, I'll just attribute it to being busy with more important things, and just bad luck on the draw.

 

So I wanted to start my searching with Ghost because they were in the hotseat most of today. But I think my late night might be catching up with me. Unfortunately, despite a lot of digging, I really don’t see new tells for Ghost. She fits the bill for the quiet profile, but a lot of the list does. Here are raw post counts for the four in Judge’s pool plus myself.


Midnight - 70
Mixt - 43
Mish - 35
Ghost - 30
Cstar - 26

And for the most part I feel like that is fairly accurate for activity levels. Midnight had a fair share of non-committal posts, but I feel like that is counterbalanced with the log. Ghost and myself had a several throw away posts, so my level would be right around Mish's, and Ghost probably drops a bit below Cstar.

I'll do quick analysis of the other 3 and get that in. Plus I'll try to do them proper during the night phase after I've gotten some sleep. In the meantime I can really go with anyone.

As was shown with tale, I'm more suspicious of quiet members given the choice; leading me to Ghost and cstar (although the tale one did blow up in my face)
I still think a vocal player makes sense, and Midnight is that on this list by a decent margin.
Mish has me personally worried because she has me on her list. We only have one incorrect lynch left. If we are sure the entire Mafia is in a pool of four we can wipe out the entire pool and win. If we have a pool of five, then our death lynch is in there. But...
Today was definitely not my best foot forward. I do not blame anyone for not being convinced I'm Town.

Those last two notes are why I need to insist that people do a breakdown on me. If we are in agreement on Judge's plan and analysis of me then we are golden. But if not then we need to re evaluate what we are doing,

 

Okay, that's a very reasonable request. Here's my breakdown on you.

• You have appeared to be pro-town in the past; asking questions, posing theories, agreeing or disagreeing with others as you saw fit and providing good, legitimate reasons for doing so. You also noticeably and significantly increased both your post count and content when asked to. This is why before Judge's 'Fake Reveal,' I listed you as one of the only people I could actually say I thought was town.
• Although the mix-up with Tale was admittedly suspicious, you again did provide reasons for it, even if some people would have played a bit differently, and seeing as how Judge and I, and also Cat, were suspect on the same grounds and all of us turned out to be Townies, obviously Tale's death is not conclusive proof of Mafia behavior.
• It was suspicious of you to drop off the radar after Judge's reveal, but again, you gave good reasons why you did so later, and you also kept a level head and tried to provide reasons for your innocence when questioned by me, as well as tried to get the Townies to plan ahead and to see what a mistake they were, in your eyes, about to make. As for your refusal to post reads, I still somewhat disagree with you, BUT, you again provided a reasonable and legitimate explanation as to why you were taking that stand, and just because it's not a way I would play does not mean it's the wrong way to play, and I respect your decision even if I don't personally understand it.
• Finally, you kept talking after your post count was up to the required 5 posts. This confused me, as it makes much more sense for a member of the Mafia to fall silent as soon as possible after being outed, in an attempt to protect their teammates. But I attributed it to you trying too hard to convince everyone you were town, as I had very little reason to suspect Judge at the time, and I figured it was best to keep you talking anyway just in case. However, continuing to talk after your count was up helps me to believe now that you're not Mafia.

There, that's my breakdown on you, and has been the easiest post I've had to make all game. XD I didn't even have to go look at logs or past posts or anything. XD

 

March votes and April lynches~ make way for LyLo clinches~

• Midnight Star - 2 (Calxiyn, Cat~)
• cstar - 1 (Mish)
• Mixt - 1 (cstar)
• Ghost - 1 (Midnight Star)
• Not voting - 4 (Ghost, Judge Sunrose, Marushi, Mixt)

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to hammer. Day 3 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 9, approximately 2 hours and 30 minutes from now.

 

@Mixt to be honest, my read of you has mostly changed due to your continued posting even after you'd hit the limit. I agree with Marushi when it comes to her analysis of you in that regard. In the face of overwhelming odds you could've just stopped and accepted your fate.

Admittedly I'm not 100% certain that you're town, but my suspicions at the moment are about 75/25 in town favor. My suspicions of others are much higher.

 

Okay, I'm having dejavu from yesterday. My gut instinct says to go for the quiet people first, which like I said before would be mainly cstar and Ghost. And with that I'm leaning on Ghost due to being lower activity on my modified list and being the one people were focused on when they thought I would see a mod death. With two hours left would it be too messy to put down that vote? It's not down to the wire like yesterday, but it is late.

 

Hmm... Ghost still hasn't come to give a defense... Would you be willing to wait one more hour?

 

Honestly, I feel like we can deal with her later. Plus, she's been the target of the three other mafia suspects. I feel like she'll end up flipping town and we'll be stuck with one less helpful vote for the next day. For now, it seems like most of us can deal with taking Midnight today. We can always bring Ghost up for discussion tomorrow.

 

Fair enough. And Midnight is the one voting Ghost now, so we can take that into account when Midnight flips.

 

I would like to point out that the last time I said something along the lines of "THIS PERSON IS OBVTOWN", they were actually mafia and it pretty much cost us the game, so... Heh, fun facts for y'all.

Anyway, I was just rereading everyone's posts after the True Reveal, or TR for short (this is a landmark now, right?), and every time I get to Mish's posts I can't help but read them in a 'lol we lost so I'll just throw mud at the wall here'-kind of way. If you try reading into this post for example, the reasoning doesn't seem to add up; it looks like it's coming out of nowhere, really. The point of that post was to clarify that she hadn't voted for Ghost for bussing-purposes, even though her vote came way before TR and had a decent enough reasoning as it was. Then there's the super nonchalant 'ok sure why not *SWAPS VOTE*' post, after I pressed her.

There, the best attempt at case-building my worn-out brain can come up with. I'll be here until the deadline hits, in case you need me or my vote.

Oh! Also very important: remember to watch out for the infamous mafia mislynch final-hammer pileup sneak attack special finishing move -- or whatever it's called.

 

I have my Mish suspicions (the official term should be "susMISHions") and I do agree with this. But if we're sure of Mish now, we may as well leave her alive so we can get a pretty solid mafia kill come tomorrow's lynch instead of accidentally hitting a townie when it's really down to the wire.

We need to plan ahead for the next day considering we haven't hit a single maf yet. I feel as though Mish is a good safety net to have in terms of lynching, if that makes sense.