Mafia [MAFIA] Lovers Mafia [GAME OVER, MAFIA VICTORY]

I'm curious, why is Jiku a town read for you? What about Jiku's posts make you read her as town?

Why did you vote for Karuta? Is it for some reason in the numbers I just didn't really notice? Or for something else?

Not that I'm doubting your suspicions on Jiku, but out of curiosity, why is Jiku a stronger suspect to you than say, Splodge? Or anyone else currently under suspicion? Do you think we might be wrong about our other suspects? What about the others makes them seem less suspicious to you than Jiku?

 

I didn't promise to consolidate a lynch, I said almost the oppsoite. I said I wouldn't care either way. At the time that I was writing that, it seemed to me like people were all going to jump on Korosu, so I simply said "I wouldn't be opposed to a Korosu" lynch. Bersides, you voteto lynch, no? Why wouldn't I bring up lynching when voting is involved. That is what a vote is: "I find them sus enough to want a lynch". Saying I don't mind either way doesn't really mean anything, it just means that I don't have strong enough opinions on Korosu to either want or not want a lynch.

It was a joke. I even put an emoticon in there. It meant nothing.

Ignoring whether or not it was helpful, because with a case like that is it highly subjective, as I said before, saying that I suspect someone for not providing useful comments and going after cal is not contradictory. Stating that User X is not contributing useful posts does not mean that every single post that user has made is not useful. I'm speaking as a whole, User X (in this case Tribbles) is not posting usefully. Likewise, saying that she is not posting usefully, or as whole she is not posting usefully, does not mean that she can't post things I find geninely suspicious, such as calling Cal out as mafia, even though I thought Cal was town.

The actual content of my read was all positive though. I may have said I had neither a town nor a mafia read on her, but what I said was all positive, so I don't think its that much of a stretch to go from "positive netural read" to "town read".

I don't really think how I formatted my read on her really matters. Even if I did only use it as evidence for why I thought Sunrose was sus, it doesn't change the fact that I still said "I don't think Cal is maf".

I cannot read "maybe you think this because you're mafia " as anything but having a mafia read. She didn't outright state "you're mafia", but at that point its basically the same as saying so.

 

Nothing about her posts, just that people were saying she's playing as she usually does. That and general gut feeling. Although now I am unsure, re: her voting for me. Would like to know the reason also.

 

Give me a little while to catch up, I just woke up.

 

Don't really have much to say about your defense atm, Splodge. I don't think it holds much weight, but I have nothing to counterargue with either, so I'll drop the debate for now. Except in regards to these two bits about your 'strong reads' for Cal:

The problem isn't that you weren't saying positive things. The problem is you read her as a slightly positive neutral read, and then when someone said you were too quick to defend Cal, you pointed to these posts as evidence, claiming to have read her as Strong Town when you really hadn't. The issue isn't in your read, it's in your contradicting yourself to make your past read support you in the present. It just seems suspicious.

You completely missed my point, and didn't even include the rest of my quote on this subject, which also seems really suspicious. You quoted the setup and left out the actual point: You said, at the time, that you had read her as Strong Town in the past. This isn't true, you read her as slightly positive neutral. And I don't think much had changed between the two posts, either. In one, you said you couldn't tell about Cal either way. In the next, you reference that you still think she's strongly town. Later, you use both instances as a way to prove that you're just defending reads and so you shouldn't be a suspect, claiming that in both instances, you strongly read her as town.

I might be reading too much into this, but really, this is all at the very least self-serving and seems like someone saying whatever they can to not be today's lynch.

So, you read her as town because people said this is how she used to play? I can see how that would make you put her in neutral, but I'm sorry, I still don't see how that makes you read her as town, especially as people also said she was often Mafia when she used to play like this. Besides, people have said that Mish is playing the way she always plays, but you read her as unsure. Why is Jiku different?

 

I also mentioned it was a gut read. Since Jiku hasn't really been posting I just took people on their word. In Mish's case, I had content to look through.

 

I literally do not have any gut feelings at all BESIDES Jiku. And it's because of my natural "throwing numbers and data to make up for discussion just reads to me as scummy behavior" disposition.

Apparently according to Karuta this is "normal play behavior" which is horrible, because that means she's unhelpful (at least that's how I see it) to town when she IS town, and she's extremely helpful to mafia when she's mafia. If she always plays in this style, it's difficult to read anything into her.

In terms of Splodge, I have read what everyone has had to say and it just looks like people took one instance of newbie shyness/slipup and tried pushing them with that one point until they could point out different mistakes. I don't get a mafia read like some people are getting, I guess. I just see another issue similar to Blaine in the last game. My issues lie in the fact I actually have no idea what to bring to the table at this point in the game. It's day 1, I'm usually goofy and finger pointy on day 1, and if people are convinced of Splodge being their gut read then they can be, but I don't get that impression. Even with all the cases already pushed on them.

Jiku on the other hand, unfortunately, I'm probably going to continue thinking she is unhelpful and more than likely mafia until proven otherwise. And that will more than likely mean when she's dead.

Couldn't having less content to read also be a gut read to think she's mafia?

 

Karuta has the highest vote to post ratio out of everyone at 0.4 (Jiku has it in her data as 0.5, but she hasn't accounted for Karuta's post just before hers).

Jiku's voting is very data-centric though. And while it is useful and a bunch of us have been eager to see it, I'm not sure I agree with Jiku's reasoning (if I am right about it being based on the vote to post ratio). Ars Nova and Splodge have both voted more than Karuta at 3 times. So Karuta's ratio is barely more than Nova's, and although Splodge has more posts than Karuta where he hasn't voted for anyone, it's because a lot of his posts are just him defending himself against us.

Al's last post seemed pretty towny to me to be honest. Unlike Splodge, who has not done much but defend himself since being targeted, Al has instead defended himself by building a case against someone else, namely Tribbles who, when prodded, doesn't have a great response. It puts me in mind of the last stages of the last game. Tribbles again says that she doesn't have any reads, apart from Jiku. She hasn't commented on Splodge AT ALL even though he is high on most peoples' lists. Instead pointing the finger at Jiku for 'wasting time' on her data collection, even though people have expressed an interest in seeing it.[DOUBLEPOST=1469819841][/DOUBLEPOST]tfw you post something and it immediately becomes untrue 8) So Tribbles has said something about Splodge, defending him.

 

According to me? I just parroted what other people were saying about her. I've never played mafia with Jiku before.

Sure. Gut reads aren't always logical though. In my case I got a town vibe from her (although not anymore as of the last few posts)

 

You were the most recent post, and if others worded it exactly that way earlier in the thread, I missed it. It wasn't an attack necessarily directly at you, as much as the idea that there might be other people who read this as "typical behavior" and it still scares me.

 

Okay, that serves as a reasonable explanation. I didn't post hugely for similar reasons of being busy so I can hardly blame you for not posting much on the same basis. And forgetting to vote... I can see it.

I will say this though - Town reads are just as valuable as Mafia reads. Do you have any Town reads to offer us?

One might suggest that having less content is a Mafia signal. Although, in this instance I'm inclined to say that she has put herself out there as being out there with stats and metrics and while it would be nice to know her reasoning for voting Karuta, it might not be entirely suspicious either. I would like to see the reasoning though.

And you propose an interesting counterpoint to Splodge, but I'm not sure that the defence given has entirely convinced us that it was a newbie error. Perhaps the mistake was formed from being Mafia and under the pressure of being called out, made more mistakes? The thing is, Splodge hasn't really given us anything to suggest that he isn't Mafia. If he came back with something then perhaps that would make a difference? Right now he's playing very defensively.

A good point. I did specifically request the data so that we could have more data to form some cases off. I understand that some more reasoning would be nice but Mish said it. The statistics are there for a reason.

There's nothing necessarily wrong with reading someone's behaviour as typical for them. What we have to decide is whether that behaviour is pro-Town or not. So far I'm inclined to think that it's pro-Town however I do thing that Jiku's reason for voting is basically required for us to be able to come to a decision on whether she's sus or not and whether she should be a target for us. I'm inclined to say that it's too soon to judge, but equally you seem to think that the lack of content is actually problematic.

To all of you, what are you thoughts on Jiku since she's coming into question right now? I should clarify, my stance is that while I'm suspicious, I think that there are greater priorities such as Splodge who need to be addressed more immediately.

 

It's hard to quote on mobile. :'v I'll do my best to answer/reply to those who have quoted me and/or mentioned me in their post. Thanks for your patience and let me know if I've missed any of you.

@Marushi - I would just like to point out (at the time of me typing this up) you still a vote against Karuta. I voted during the 'random voting phase' as at the time there was nothing else to go on and it was what most people were doing. This is my first game so thanks for your advice and whatnot regarding 'play style' - I'm a little nervous about playing honestly.

@Calxiyn - I did answer Al's question about if I was aware Kat had a vote against them. I don't know how else I could have answered that. As mentioned above, I voted during the 'random voting phase' for the previously mentioned reasons.

I agree with the points on Splodge raised by Mish. Splodge seems to be mostly defending himself right now but as mentioned by tribbles, this could be reflective of Blaine's behaviour (from what I was told) in the last game. Then again, tribbles defense of Splodge could be seen as fishy. If you want to read that much into it.

Upon reading the rest of the thread (and despite my first vote being random) I'm still keeping my vote for Katura there. Despite being poked, he hasn't said much beyond 'I agree' or things similar.[DOUBLEPOST=1469822034][/DOUBLEPOST]ALSO I'm being super nitpicky here but - Cal, as you're aware, I'm a chick. Please refer to me as such.

 

Alright, sorry everyone. My teenage sister was talking to me about some drama in her life and I needed to focus on her for a little while. I tried to keep up with new posts as they came, but I haven't really had time to think about them yet, so I'll post responses in a little while after I read through everything.

 

Not especially, for Mish, but I've been slowly retracting my written vote on her since she seems especially eager for people to settle on a vote with reasoning, because they seem suspicious. Nothing she says seems very Mafia, but I never read on past games.

At the time, there was no room on the my Town list for Nova, and not to mention aside from changing his vote and all that, there's little to no content from him to go off of (granted I know he's dealing with personal things at the moment, so it's not really his fault).

You say it's not a gut read, but it's surprising how other people's opinions can influence your own when you read into all of it yourself. Like I said though, my suspicions on Mish are slowly dwindling.

Game aside, it's really difficult for me to go through and read all the posts and soak in information to wring out of myself later, this clearly isn't my type of game and I don't think I'll play again after this (I'm not sure I'll even make it through this one, it's just a lot of reading for me and I have a short attention span).

I was really surprised when the way I normally type drew all sorts of suspicion, I really wasn't expecting to be jumped on for it, so I decided to change the way I type so I could clear up myself. Thanks for the benefit of the doubt. :'^)

When Al first made the joke to Cal about no more speculation on Mafia plans, though I knew it was a joke, I feel it was poorly made for his later defense. He has to know that any and everything he says (and this goes for all of us) can be taken and twisted in the minds of others later.

In a second part of that same post, he said The problem with lynching the quietest players at any given time is that they might be connected to someone important. Who is important in this game? Lynching anyone at this point would be totally random. Could he have meant a 3-Town connected Town? Or was he worried one of the at-the-time quietest players (Korosu, Nova, Jiku, Cstar) would be lynched and connected to Mafia, which would have them lose?

 

Interactions surrounding Jiku are confusing me rn and I can't remember what she flipped in her other games. But suffice to say I have a very volatile null read. Her acting the same as she always has is not necessarily a good thing. Will report back very soon with findings.[DOUBLEPOST=1469827216][/DOUBLEPOST]Fawk, she was Maf in both games and in one she subbed out. Was hoping for one Maf, one Town.

 

@Midnight Star
Although you told everyone to give their gut reads, all you've given is some scattered thoughts on a few players. What are your reads, and do you have any leads on anyone?

 

Okay, here we go...

Okay, I'm sorry, but I still don't see how you can read Jiku as town simply because people said she played this way last game. Even with no other evidence to go by, I can't see this as evidence of her being town. Like I said, I would totally understand you feeling she's neutral, because other people say she always plays this way, but even for a gut read, to get a town vibe off literally nothing except for the testimony that she often plays using only numbers just seems really suspicious to me.

Thanks for this response, it's really helpful. I'll talk more about Jiku later down, for now, though, I'd say that I think data gathering can be very helpful to town if handled the right way, so I do think that there is some merit to Jiku's methods, but that I think it should be a tool used in addition to case-building based on post content and player attitude.

As for what you say about Splodge, you could very well be right... I still, until further notice, think that Splodge is one of the most suspicious players so far, but I do agree that it might all just be chalked up to being new to the game. Everyone else who is suspicious of Splodge, what do you think?

Oh, okay, thanks for explaining that. XD As for the rest of this, it's all subject to new interpretation in light of Tribble's more recent posts, so there's not much there for me to talk about.

Hmm... I'm feeling less certain about Splodge now, because Tribbles makes a good point that the way he's playing sort of fits as a certain kind of town behavior. I'm remembering Townie Beau's 'slip up' in the past when it appeared like he was talking about townies as if they were separate from him, or when a townie (I think it might have been Krowley, was it Krowley?) voted for themselves as a joke during RVS and everyone flipped out and lynched him for that, and more recently, G-dog and Blaine and how they played on day one, both of them turning out to be townies. I will say though, in each of those cases, I got strong vibes that they were townies, and that's missing in this one. I don't feel like Splodge is a newbie townie who just slipped. Though, of course, I could be dead wrong about that. I guess, what I'm trying to say is, I'm unsure about Splodge now... I'd really like to see his take on everything.

@Splodge what are your opinions on Jiku Neon? You've been accused of focusing only on defense and not on building cases, so now's a chance to prove us wrong.

I agree that Karuta's responses appear to be lacking. I'm definitely growing more suspicious of him as time goes on, mainly because of the whole Jiku/town thing I mentioned earlier. As for you, I'll go on a limb and say that, subject to change, you are giving me a bit of a town vibe, because you do seem to be trying to post and contribute. Though I felt the same about Mixt on and off last game, and he was Mafia, so take it with a grain of salt.

Okay, so you're saying that you were basing your reads not only on the people themselves, but you were trying to pick out five Mafia because there are five Mafia? That makes sense. I'm still not sure why Nova made your list, but if it was because you thought other players seemed more town, I can understand your reasoning. Thanks for clarifying.

I'm sorry this game isn't turning out fun for you. :( That's too bad, but I understand. A tip on how to help deal with that whole 'soaking and wringing information' thing: Keep a notebook handy, or a document on your computer, and as you read through, maybe make a note of the things that stick out to you. That way, when you get to the end and are ready to post, you don't have to try to remember stuff, you can look back over your notes and see if any of them bear writing about. That should help make it a little easier. I know it helps me. :)

As for Al's joke directed at Cal, I just want to note that they're a couple, and they have joked a little bit to each other in previous games as well, where they were both town. I can understand being suspicious, but I wouldn't read too much into that one, as it just seems a little bit like playful banter. (And it's super cute, btw, you two are adorable, lol XD)

In regards to his post about the connection of other players, I feel like it was less about the mechanics of the game, or possible Mafia connections, as it was like, "Hey, if you lynch randomly-exampling Tribbles for being a bit inactive, you might also kill off randomly-exampling Calxiyn, who posts a lot and usually has good instincts." That sort of thing. The important connections are that by lynching inactives, we could also be hitting high-profile people who might help us in the long run.

Now then. Since asked about Jiku, here I go...

I'm wary about Jiku. I just looked back, and she's played 2 Mafia games on this site, and has been Mafia both times. And in both games, she did play like this, mostly using numbers and data, and not much else. While this isn't necessarily a bad thing, I personally don't find it as helpful as reads based on instinct and content.

There's also the problem of trust: If people trust Jiku to give correct and unbiased calculations, then her playstyle, while unusual, can be helpful. But iirc, in one of her other two game, Jiku admitted post-game that her calculations had been somewhat fixed to favor the Mafia, of which she was one. I am not a numbers person, so I can't say how they were fixed, and as proven by an earlier question, I can't very well interpret Jiku's numbers as-is. To me, it's a wall of numbers, and something interesting, but not much else. That's not to say they aren't helpful, just not for me. But the point I'm trying to make is that they can be fixed, at least a little bit, and so if Jiku continues her playstyle of only posting and voting based on statistics and numbers, we need to be very careful with how we view her information.

It's also dangerous for town, because if Jiku were to die, we wouldn't gain much information (aside from whoever her lovers are) and there wouldn't be anything to look back on and take note of. Jiku's playstyle might yet turn out to be innocent: But she has hidden behind numbers and statistics before, and it hasn't boded well for town yet.

That said, I don't suspect her for this yet, I'm just feeling very wary of her, and would caution people not to trust her without due cause.

 

I really didn't mean much by placing her as town in that post. I wasn't really going off anything, it was just a general feeling from the little I had to work with. I don't even feel that way anymore, I posted it that list before she even posted her data.

I will post an updated list soon.

 

Actually, that reminds me, I meant to address that and I forgot. I actually find it a little suspicious that you backed down from that read so quickly after it was pointed out, and also that your given reason for it was because Jiku voted for you. That feels like you made a mistake and were trying to backtrack, and giving the vote as a reason makes you seem overdefensive.

 

I was never suspicious of Splodge's "slip," I was suspicious of his indecision and backpedaling. But if he can sufficiently answer your question, Marushi, I may start to think better of him.[DOUBLEPOST=1469828694][/DOUBLEPOST]Of course that leaves Karuta in a tight spot for the same reasons, but maybe he's also getting newbnerves? This's his first game, right? Either way, might be voting that way next, or I might come crashing back down on Jiku.