If Mish fooled us she would totally deserve MVP, a SPECIAL MVP. When we were talking about it yesterday, it was a tie sort of situation between Mixt and Mish, but we were sure of Ghost and Cstar. Now with Mixt dead, and both of our sureness on ghost I think it's safe to say that Ghost, for all the reasons we said is Mafia. (If Ghost is I'll be super happy, not just beside we win but she and Cstar both fit into the analysis of the Mafia M.O) But honestly I'm not lynching so I can be right, I'm lynching so we can all win xD if their roles were reserved I would still take out the right one anyway. Mish convinced me yesterday of her townness, and if she had been like that all game I think we would have no doubt, she's really good at making analysis posts and she was holding out on us xD Anyway yeah I think we can just vote now. Ghost and Cstar didn't really say anything else after we caught them out so I don't think Ghosf can defend herself today xD ##Vote: Ghost
I find most 13 episode anime are only that long because they didn't do well enough to get another season. I've watched so many that don't actually END and I don't feel satisfied. So unless you want to read the rest of the Manga to figure out how it ends, I wouldn't lol.
The thing with Mixt is is that I think without Judge accidentally clearing him, we wouldn't have thought for a second he was town. I think Judge made a mistake himself. He was too trusting and for some reason, at least, from my view that move makes no sense at all. I think Mixt is the most GULITY if anything, Cstar included. Obviously he can't defend himself but he wasn't defending himself when he could either, he was going around in circles trying to play mind games with Judge, and for some reason it worked. He's never "defended" himself, he's just been avoiding his own defense by creating confusing hypothetical situations. I don't think we could justify Mixt's actions from a town angle, there is no reason for a Town member to give that sort of response. I've read Mish's posts and they are by far the strongest out of the four. Why? Because she knows who the other Mafia members are since she is town. Again, I think all the double bus stuff is making everything way too complicated. At this stage in the game I think we're getting way too wrapped up in things that don't matter. I think the double bus thing is a bit too elaborate at this moment. I say this because we have an entire games worth of evidence to go off of, and even if they were both doing that we would have other things that led us to the conclusion Mish was Mafia. Say, for example, instead of obviously trying to dig Cstar out of a hole, Ghost also condemned her. Firstly that means we'd definitely lynch Cstar, which isn't preferable, but it wouldn't knock off Ghost as being Mafia at all, at least for me, because I was already convinced based off of her pervious actions before that happened. This doesn't make or break her case, her case is strong enough on its own to withstand that. But Ghost did start digging to save Cstar from the deep hole which makes her even more guilty. I hope that all makes sense. What I'm saying is is that if Mish had been this vocal and this strong in her cases from the beginning we wouldnt be having this conversation. Not only that but Mish sniffed out two of the Mafia, Ghost and Cstar, before I did. One of them HAS to be on her scumteam if they are all Mafia, and sure the bussing and whatever else, but I think there's enough evidence to show she isn't just throwing them under a bus now, she's been on the hunt for most of the game, or at least the last few days. Mish has my full confidence, and that could be dangerous in this game, however I'm sure that my confidence has been placed with the town. It's a hard sell, and I know that, which is why I'm trying my best to find more reasons to condem and condone people's actions, but for Mish at this stage I don't think I have anything on her to make me think she would be Mafia.
I've been away for yesterday, but I've caught up. Now I'm going to tell you who is Mafia. Cstar has obviously slipped up, and the fact that you can't see this clearly Marushi concerns me. If Mish isn't Mafia, they are. This isn't a mistype, this isn't a hypothetical, this is a nervous mistake. This is not a Townie error, this is a Mafia error as they have now revealed their role. Cstar's coverup is hardly enough to make me change my mind, and it's like trying to put a Disney Princess bandaid over someone's stab wound! We need to capitize on this mistake! Cstar is Mafia. I explained my points on Ghost, and now Ghost is trying to cover up Cstar's mistakes, and now Ghost started slipping up while speaking to Marushi about Mish being Town. Ghost is Mafia I don't understand why you guys gave Mixt the benefit of the doubt! Not lynching him as a major mistake, no townie responses the way he responded in his post. Judge exposed him as Mafia right there, even if he didn't really know, but for some reason we all went blind. MIXT IS MAFIA. I'll admit that I was too busy following Marushi to develope my thoughts about that, but Marushi has also been wrong on almost everything this game. Now I haven't exactly been perfected either, but I think the issue is is that we're all thinking about things way too complicatedly, like we're all masterminds or something. But we aren't. If anything I feel like we're even more stupid for trying THIS hard. The answer was right in front of us yesterday and we passed it by. I went back to being less aggressive because of the suspicion on me, but now you all know I'm town I'm going back to how I was before. It didn't get me a lot much closer in the beginning but I think I've relearned something towards the end. I was too busy trying to play hard instead of playing smart, and under pressure I'm playing smart again. I'm taking more time instead of thinking about things too quickly, and I've thought about this a lot. I think that Cstars confession just seals things here. If we want to play smart, we need to lynch the three of them. Mixt, Ghost and Cstar. If Cat and Marushi want a safe vote today, go for Cstar. I figured she was using the strategy of flying low like I had done when I first won as Mafia earlier, but I didn't go for it. I should have. But now that she's actually speaking we can see how nervous and anxious she is. And Ghost, maybe in her newest to the game is making it obvious she's trying to dig Cstar out of a hole. If you aren't sure about Mixt, that's fine, I think upon thinking about it it's super stupid we didn't lynch him. But today lets do Cstar or Ghost, I think this is proof enough they're both solid targets. I don't think we should waste time going in circles like this. I think the answer is right in front of our face and we've been looking at this too complicated. I appreciate Marushi's dedication to what she's doing here and her plans but the complexity of how we're all making things make us totally slide over Mixt. But on the other side, thanks to her plan we got a good and solid answer from Cstar I don't think we should hesitate. I know this is a stressful environment for us to be in but we have all the information we need to win the game. Any more over complication and I'm worried about our chances. We basically have two Mafia saying that they thought Mish was town, because she is. Again, they've slipped up. I can expand on anything if you want Cat/Marushi but I think it's really clear. I really hope you can trust me enough on my analysis today to do this with me, but if you need more convincing I'll expand on all my evidence. If you don't that's great though lol, we're all on the same page. I'm going to vote Cstar. There is no doubt in my mind that this is a nervous Mafia mistake, not a townie error. ##Vote: Cstar[DOUBLEPOST=1468337074][/DOUBLEPOST]I've been away for yesterday, but I've caught up. Now I'm going to tell you who is Mafia. Cstar has obviously slipped up, and the fact that you can't see this clearly Marushi concerns me. If Mish isn't Mafia, they are. This isn't a mistype, this isn't a hypothetical, this is a nervous mistake. This is not a Townie error, this is a Mafia error as they have now revealed their role. Cstar's coverup is hardly enough to make me change my mind, and it's like trying to put a Disney Princess bandaid over someone's stab wound! We need to capitize on this mistake! Cstar is Mafia. I explained my points on Ghost, and now Ghost is trying to cover up Cstar's mistakes, and now Ghost started slipping up while speaking to Marushi about Mish being Town. Ghost is Mafia I don't understand why you guys gave Mixt the benefit of the doubt! Not lynching him as a major mistake, no townie responses the way he responded in his post. Judge exposed him as Mafia right there, even if he didn't really know, but for some reason we all went blind. MIXT IS MAFIA. I'll admit that I was too busy following Marushi to develope my thoughts about that, but Marushi has also been wrong on almost everything this game. Now I haven't exactly been perfected either, but I think the issue is is that we're all thinking about things way too complicatedly, like we're all masterminds or something. But we aren't. If anything I feel like we're even more stupid for trying THIS hard. The answer was right in front of us yesterday and we passed it by. I went back to being less aggressive because of the suspicion on me, but now you all know I'm town I'm going back to how I was before. It didn't get me a lot much closer in the beginning but I think I've relearned something towards the end. I was too busy trying to play hard instead of playing smart, and under pressure I'm playing smart again. I'm taking more time instead of thinking about things too quickly, and I've thought about this a lot. I think that Cstars confession just seals things here. If we want to play smart, we need to lynch the three of them. Mixt, Ghost and Cstar. If Cat and Marushi want a safe vote today, go for Cstar. I figured she was using the strategy of flying low like I had done when I first won as Mafia earlier, but I didn't go for it. I should have. But now that she's actually speaking we can see how nervous and anxious she is. And Ghost, maybe in her newest to the game is making it obvious she's trying to dig Cstar out of a hole. If you aren't sure about Mixt, that's fine, I think upon thinking about it it's super stupid we didn't lynch him. But today lets do Cstar or Ghost, I think this is proof enough they're both solid targets. I don't think we should waste time going in circles like this. I think the answer is right in front of our face and we've been looking at this too complicated. I appreciate Marushi's dedication to what she's doing here and her plans but the complexity of how we're all making things make us totally slide over Mixt. But on the other side, thanks to her plan we got a good and solid answer from Cstar I don't think we should hesitate. I know this is a stressful environment for us to be in but we have all the information we need to win the game. Any more over complication and I'm worried about our chances. We basically have two Mafia saying that they thought Mish was town, because she is. Again, they've slipped up. I can expand on anything if you want Cat/Marushi but I think it's really clear. I really hope you can trust me enough on my analysis today to do this with me, but if you need more convincing I'll expand on all my evidence. If you don't that's great though lol, we're all on the same page. I'm going to vote Cstar. There is no doubt in my mind that this is a nervous Mafia mistake, not a townie error. ##Vote: Cstar
I actually got that feel from it too. When we were going up the stairs it reminded me a lot of when Belle goes up to te dungeon because of the design of where the candles would have gone at that time, how they spiraled. In general some of the decoration too, like the lamp with the man holding up a snake and the dragons and things would have been the "before" when all the Angels were turned to scary things.
I think the safe bet for us is to go for Ghost today. She tried to push Midnight and I against each other by going for me and agreeing with Midnight, but then she changed her mind and said we were BOTH her top suspicion. I think that's our best bet. I do like your thinking though, Marushi. Your strategy is very interesting.
Is this their ship name because damn I ship it.
These are pictures from Monteque (???) house and also Lytes Cary which we went to today! The houses were beautiful. I took a lot of pictures of furniture and stuff so I may need to redecorate when I get home haha. Most of my pictures were of the stain glass windows, that is my one true weakness. At Lytes Cary this three year old girl said she wouldn't go into one of the rooms because she saw the lady who died in there. The picture/portrait of the girl is the daughter of the guy who owned the house. She was hunting and got soaked and got sick I guess. Either way, It was super creepy... Also I have no idea what any of the Latin stuff says but it was in the church area of the house so I guess they're prayers. Spoiler View attachment 44916 View attachment 44917 View attachment 44918 View attachment 44919 View attachment 44920 View attachment 44922 View attachment 44923 View attachment 44925 View attachment 44926 View attachment 44927 View attachment 44928 View attachment 44929 View attachment 44930 View attachment 44931 View attachment 44932 View attachment 44933 View attachment 44934 View attachment 44935 View attachment 44936 View attachment 44937 View attachment 44938 View attachment 44939 View attachment 44940 View attachment 44941 View attachment 44942 View attachment 44943 View attachment 44944 View attachment 44945 View attachment 44946 View attachment 44947
You were able to walk on the inside part, yeah. Some places were blocked off because as you can see it does have some big holes in it xD but it just gives it character.
I have to head to bed and I want to vote before I do, I know more discussion would be nice but we're hard pressed. I think I want to go for Midnight. She instantly votes for Ghost, and it could be that she did that to rid ghost of suspicion or put on suspicion all together. The third option is she's town and Ghost is Mafia but I don't think that's the case. I'm pretty sure it's the first two. I'm weary about ghost being town but at this point though, I honestly trust Maru and Cat, and so if either of you want me to change my vote I'll go along with you guys and pray. ##Vote: Midnight Star
I have no idea what to say. That was a crafty move there Judge. I can't even put into words. Anyway if Mixt is Town (???), Me, Marushi, Cat and Judge are confirmed, we have Mish, Cstar, Midnight and Ghost. One of them is innocent, obviously, and I'm leaning to that one being Mish or Cstar. ##Unvote: Mixt I still say go for either Ghost or Midnight. It's basically a 1/4 chance of one of them being town, and statistically they both could be Mafia? Sorry, I guess I'm really sort of confused right now xD not confused like I don't understand but if anything in this game could surprise me, it was this whole thing[DOUBLEPOST=1468104150][/DOUBLEPOST]I have no idea what to say. That was a crafty move there Judge. I can't even put into words. Anyway if Mixt is Town (???), Me, Marushi, Cat and Judge are confirmed, we have Mish, Cstar, Midnight and Ghost. One of them is innocent, obviously, and I'm leaning to that one being Mish or Cstar. ##Unvote: Mixt I still say go for either Ghost or Midnight. It's basically a 1/4 chance of one of them being town, and statistically they both could be Mafia? Sorry, I guess I'm really sort of confused right now xD not confused like I don't understand but if anything in this game could surprise me, it was this whole thing
The prom was fantastic! They served free booze to their students though which would NEVER happen in America lol. Honestly though the prom was amazing. Thanks to everyone who said I looked pretty haha Al and I went to Corfe Castle today!! I took loads of pictures. Also that first picture is of my AP exam score, which I got today. 4/5 is one of the best you can get so I'm really happy! Plus it's what universities take so it's a double plus. I loved seeing the castle but I equally loved that you were able to decorate these shields with chalk drawings and I felt like I was seven again doing them lol. I did a butterfly, a pumpkin, a fish and a flower, behold my creative mind, haha. I don't like taking pictures that much but everyone asks to see whenever I go somewhere so I may as well. Spoiler View attachment 44894 View attachment 44895 View attachment 44896 View attachment 44897 View attachment 44899 View attachment 44900 View attachment 44901 View attachment 44902 View attachment 44903 View attachment 44904 View attachment 44905
So with Marushi's recount this changes things again. This may help us figure out all our options, in least to most likely. If Mixt and Midnight both are Modkilled, we lynch someone else today, and a townie dies. We'd lose either 3 Town v 1 Mafia, 2 Town v 2 Mafia, 1 Town and 3 Mafia. The only sure town is the one the Mafia kill. With this we would have 4 people left. Which could either be a 2 v 2, or a 3 v 1. If it's a 2 v 2 we lose, because the town is overrun. If Mixt isn't Modkilled but Midnight is, we would have 5 people left, depending on her role we would either have a 3 v 2, or a game over. But if no one is Modkilled we lose 1 Mafia and one Town like normal, leaving us 6 people tomorrow, making it a 4 v 2. That gives the town much better odds. Additional deaths do not suit us in our current situation, which means for us hopefully Midnight will post. I don't think we'll be relying on Modkills for much longer. Well in that particular post it was mostly convenience, With all those people in danger of being Modkilled Mish would be left over for us tomorrow, if Ghost was lynched today because Mixt would be Modkilled and all that crap has changed now. But that doesn't matter anymore because the numbers have changed again. My more analysital reason for getting on Ghost, is similar to what Midnight said. She gives enough help, but she's in a picture spot for a Mafia, able to give the vague impression that she's helpful. Before I thought she was learning and she very well may be, she also agrees with the top posters, other then myself because I believe she sort of decided on two people to piggy back: Midnight, who was big at the beginning, and now you. She doesn't have any autonomous thought, she doesn't act on her own initiative and she's been basically repeating her suspicions about me and failed to provide any new evidence for it, or even new evidence expanded on what has already been established. This is a really good spot to be when you're Mafia, it makes it harder for people to want to lynch you. Mish is sort of around but she's ambiguous as well. I suspect Mish, but there's not as much to back it up in my own mind at the moment so I'm not going for it. Ghost just seems like a stronger case.
See @Marushi I was unaware that Mixt was close to being Modkilled so when I saw you guys going for ghost I was like "What the actual **** are they DOING" but now I understand lol. I agree that it's effective to try and use the Modkills to give us more time, however with Cstar and Midnight it chances a lot of things and it'll effect our chances of winning greatly depending on what sides they are on. This is already a hard squeeze for the Mafia though, but that didn't mean it's impossible. Here's some more maths; We lynch, say Ghost, then Mixt dies, and so do Cstar and Midnight, and then Judge dies. That leaves 4 of us, it could be a 2 v 2, 3 v 1, or all four. are town. However it can't be a 2 V 2 if Cat, Me and Marushi are all town, as implied. So that means it can be a 3 v 1. Now I know some people are weary of my alignment but I'll get back to that later. Statiscally speaking Ghost, Midnight or Cstar has to be Mafia, which could leave Mish as the last Mafia, but this is only if all 4 of those people die. I'll change my odds for us later so we can see clearly, but it's good to remember that either two of them (Ghost, Cstar or Midnight) is Mafia, or one of them is and Mish is our last one. I'm just as bad with numbers Maru, I needed to find a calculator from my suitcase xD Yes I calmed down a bit because I realized what you were doing, I had a big panic moment when I saw people voting for Ghost, as I said. But yes, I haven't panicked much in this game but as SOON as I saw Ghost going up I thought Mafia were trying to do a quick switch. I should have read more thoroughly so that's completely my bad. I can see why this is suspicious, but as you could see with my pervious numbers we couldn't afford a mistake to win. Now on my alignment, if you and Cat can trust me enough on this and look at our numbers, we either need to get Ghost or Mish, because of we don't lynch one the other will be alive anyway since they won't be Modkilled. I think that Ghost should be lynched today since she's pushing for me. Again, if you and Cat, Maru, believe that I am town, then at least two of the three I mentioned have to be Mafia. I think that Ghost may be mentioning Midnight to throw off suspicion on her, however I think that if you believe Cstar is in fact town, our Mafia scum team would be Ghost, Mixt and Midnight. I trust in Maru's detective abilities even though I'm personally still on Midnight, but similar to Marushi maybe I just want to be right about something. But I need to give you guys a better reason to trust in me by the end of the day, and I certainly can try. But I'm afraid that without all of us working together on this, town is gonna lose. If we're all town we NEED to live and not screw up today and tomorrow. Now for Mixt: the issue is that if Judge is Mafia, someone else would come out and give all their reads. It's risky for him to be doing this, not impossible but I trust him. If judge is making a smokescreen for the real cop, well let's go back to my odds for today, at least for now again. There are either going to be two Mafia killed by Modkilled, or one. The other one will be alive that day and be Mish. That means either Midnight, Ghost or Cstar is cop. The only person we haven't heard from is Midnight, and I think if she were cop she could have investigated me after day 2 and mentioned something about that. If Cat, Maruishi, and I aren't the cop, it has to be someone who is Modkilled, or Mish. But no one has come forward to call Judge out, and if the cop was really here and really wanted town to win they would. Also I don't think judge revealed himself to get you done in Mixt, it was so he could tell everyone Cat was innocent. Obviously now, looking at our chances having a town confirmed without a doubt is a blessing. I think that's all I have for now.
We need Judge to post so they kill him. They may go for another townie if he isn't sure of his death and we can't have that. Cstar and Midnight though is tricky. They both could be Mafia or they could both be town and I'm pretty sure them both dying will **** us over depending on their alignment. I'll try to do another (math-hell) post detailing our chances in each circumstance tomorrow, because this may change by then.
Before voting for Ghost I would like to see a list of who is in danger of being Modkilled by Mak. If Mixt isn't in danger we vote for him, obviously. If he's confirmed not going to survive then I'd be alright with voting Ghost unless she is also going to be killed (but she may have posted enough) If she and Mixt are both being Modkilled, I think Mish is a good second target, however I don't want us to forget about Midnight, who is higher on my list then Mish. I think it's hard to decide between Cstar and Ghost. Ghost seems to be sort of dipping her feet into things and figuring out how to really play, but Cstar (I think already has) and may be succeeding at what I did my first game where I was Mafia, which was laying so low people assumed I was town, sort of. As for Mish I would vote Midnight over her, but honestly everything changes depending on what's going down tomorrow.
To clarify, the only one I thought was up for a Modkill was Mish. Unless Marushi made a typo I didn't realize Mixt was up for the chopping board as well. Maybe Makaze can tell us who's completed their quota? Or someone else can make a list for Midnight, Cstar, Mish, Mixt and Ghost
I didn't realize Mixt was up for being Modkilled, which effected my verison of events in my last post. This does change things slightly, but I'll have to revaluate my numbers tomorrow.
Everyone here is asleep and so I'm finally getting to Mafia today. I just want to remind everyone of our odds quickly. I was reading the front page again, and I saw "MyLo", which and "Lylo" again and I was thinking about this: If one Mafia is killed tonight, Judge killed at night, Mish is mod killed. If two Mafia are killed we outnumber them. It'd be a 4 v 1. If Mish is Town, we're in trouble, because then it's 3 to 2 then we have two Mafia. If we lynch correctly tomorrow it'll be a 3 v 1, so eventually it's lynch correctly or die. If Mish is Mafia we have an extra day. We would also have 4 to 1. If Mish doesn't die by mod it's a 4 v 2 regardless of her alignment. The most a Mafia can do is counter claim cop. As risky as that sounds, say Judge is lynched today because of the counter claim, we lose Townie Mish, and a townie is killed tonight, tomorrow. If all of this happens, the Mafia would win. At the moment it's 5 Town and 3 Mafia. If we lost 3 Town this way we'd be outnumbered and we would get a game over. 3 Town could die tonight. The situation in which we win is, Mafia is lynched, Judge is going to be die if he's telling the truth, and over the next two days the other Mafia are identified and killed. Mish changes everything, we either lose or we find the last Mafia. There is no room for error, we need to make sure we lynch Mixt today because they are confirmed. Don't waste time on Ghost. If we get switched like before we will die.[DOUBLEPOST=1468018104][/DOUBLEPOST]Don't try to tie ghost today so that doesn't happen. (Also Al's probably the only active person in the dead chat and he's been with me all day aka not in there, so I imagine it's dead xD )[DOUBLEPOST=1468018220][/DOUBLEPOST]I want to vote for Mixt now so the Mafia don't get a chance to pull anything but Marushi did say to wait so I'm going to see what she says[DOUBLEPOST=1468019364][/DOUBLEPOST]REGARDLESS I'm doing this as a safety measure ##Vote: Mixt
I knew when I was counting people up I had forgotten someone. I think our sad reality is that Mish may not fill her quota and may end up dying. If she's town that sucks and if she's Mafia it also kind of sucks because then I feel it's unfair. Sort of like when people disconnect from TOS and now it's not even to win on either side. Either way unless she appears I don't see a reason to waste time on her, she may get mod killed
