I'm not WIFOMing Makaze's system. I'm pointing at what you're saying. You're saying there's no way, but there is an equal chance if all of this has been done randomly. The chance of Midnight being connected to two Mafia is the same as you being connected to two Mafia, or me being connected to two Mafia at the beginning of the game. What I'm saying is, if it's unlikely one or both of your lovers are scum, it's also unlikely for Midnight's second lover to also be Mafia.[DOUBLEPOST=1470331096][/DOUBLEPOST]In other words, despite Judge's behavior, throw that away entirely, how can there be a way that both Midnight's lovers are Mafia if both yours can't possibly be?[DOUBLEPOST=1470331158][/DOUBLEPOST]When I'm looking at the targets here, I'm not looking at who is Mafia, because there are cases against all three of you. I'm looking at what is the safest lynch, and we have a better chance of finding two Mafia in three, then two Mafia in two.
But would it be even more unlikely for Midnight to be connected to two Mafia, Al and Judge? It's the same probability that we looked at with them as we are looking at you now. Wouldn't it also be unlikely for Midnight to have both of her lovers be scum as well?
But if they're both Town, we're going to lose. Probability wise it would be better to lynch you to get Karuta and Korosu, wouldn't you agree?
But if they aren't found in Nova, they can't be found in mine because I'm with Karuta. Mish is either loverless or connected to Kelly. If so, should we be lynching Mish then? There are 7 people left, 3 are Mafia and 4 are Town, if we're even with the Mafia does that mean we lose? Because in that case Nova is still the better option lol. Also post confuses me because it's almost like you're not sure of your own alignment. Like, when you say there's a chance of a red being found among Midnight, you either mean yourself or her. If you're unsure of her then what gives reason for that, because both of you should be sure it doesn't lie with you if both of you are indeed town. Right? From the way Judge and Nova are both currently interacting, I'm actually thinking that they're both town elbowing in one another. If they are, other then Midnight, the Mafia would have to be Mish, Karuta, and Korosu, which means we STILL need to lynch Nova because then we would be down two.
The only one who has been "online" (but if not looking at the thread) is Karuta, and if he did it all by himself it would look PRETTY bad. Also I'm staff so I realized I can see if you're invisible. I'm not trying to use that to call people out but if I did that by accident and you ARE on invisiable, I mean, sorry lol
But Korosu, Mish and Karuta haven't been online at all, they can't do a blitz if they're not here period.
Korosu and Karuta haven't been around, neither has Mish. This probably isn't intentional by them but it does seem like they're hiding to wait till the dust settles. I can't really decide what to do. On one hand, we could lynch Nova because the chances are higher to catch two Mafia, since lynching them have 3 people, and you guys have two. There is a huge chance there is a Mafia in both places though. Either way if we mislynch we're going to go down, so I think we SHOULD lynch you Nova. If we get two Mafia, there will only be one left and Me, Mish and Midnight can all lynch Judge no problem. The thing is, us getting two Mafia today require three Mafia to be all lovers. I'm not going to speculate on Makaze's system or anything, but numerically it's hard to believe. There's just a higher chance of getting two Mafia with you, Nova, then there is with Midnight and Judge, unless Midnight and Judge ARE both Mafia. I just think if we're going to take a risk, we should be risking to find more, not less. And if Midnight and Judge have both fooled me they've done a good job but from the beginning of the game I've had this sinking feeling that Nova had been fooling us, which now, in the long run, is making me hard to trust him. See, if it was Marushi suggesting this and Nova had died yesterday, this wouldn't be as difficult. Marushi was a confirmed town and I had no doubt about her. I think that we either should have gotten Nova or Midnight yesterday to be safe, and that was probably a mistake I over looked but something I'll remember for the next time. There are still 3 Mafia, which means someone in Nova's pairs (or Mish) has to be it. But again, statistically speaking I think we should be going for Nova today. I asked earlier for the Town to make cases on why other people were Mafia, because if you're Town you can narrow down who the Mafia are. So everyone should be making a top three list right now with reasons why, but when I asked earlier no one answered me. Nova, you made a case for Midnight and Judge already, but what about for the third Mafia?
I thought Nova was doing this to see how you guys would react and judge your reactions to base whether or not you were Mafia. But now I fear that my concerns about Nova from the beginning have come true. For now I'm going to unvote. I've had suspicions about Nova since the beginning, and he's not thinking as logically anymore. It's almost the nervous and bravado that Al had when he was getting frustrated and extemely nervous. However Judge is showing the same thing. But both of you, at least it would be unlikely for you both to be Mafia together. But you're both acting similarly. ##Unvote
The Mafia have told each other their lovers, but to my knowledge no other town in the game told their other lover who their other lover was. Marushi didn't tell Cstar and Al, I'm assuming Nova didn't tell Karuta and Korosu, and I didn't tell Cstar or Karuta. The fact that you guys know each other's lover without Judge saying it, especially when neither of you were completely cleared as town. If you suspected each other as Mafia, you wouldn't have told them who you were connected to.
This is a very tense situation, a part of me is paranoid that Nova is playing us. However, if Nova is town, he's a much better skilled player then me and I trust him to lead us through the game. And I'm also tired of playing things safe and running us in circles. Numbers wise though, Nova, it would be more likely to find a Mafia if we lynch someone with two lovers. Judge, who are your lovers again? Midnight and who?
I couldn't say it better myself Nova. However, I think that it's important that we realize we only have 2/5 Mafia. 4 of us are Town, since 4 Town are already dead. Mish, Midnight, Karuta, Korosu, Judge. If Nova and I are town, two of them are also town. We need to decide who is the most town and who is the most Mafia. I agree with Midnight and Judge's poor behavior though. So maybe as Town we do have: 1. Me 2. Nova 3. Karuta 4. Korosu Mafia: 1. Midnight 2. Judge 3. Mish However Nova, if Midnight and Judge both flip town, the logical thing to do would be to lynch you, since your defense of Karuta and Korosu will look extremely suspicious. If it's one and not the other, we should look at who everyone's lovers are. I personally still find Karuta suspicious, and I could see him more as a Mafia then Judge. I'm also crossing my fingers that Nova hasn't been playing us. I would recommend that @Mish @Korosu @Karuta and @Judge Sunrose start making cases to why others are Mafia rather then why you're town. I'll explain later the pattern I'm looking for. ##Vote: Midnight Star
I shouldn't say "cleared" per say, I should say that Nova made a very good argument for me not being Mafia earlier in between Splodge getting lynched and me continuing to pressure Al into admitting he was Mafia. Who did he think was a more dangerous lynch? Or a safer one?
I think our best course of action is revealing lovers now. I say this because this way, we are able to work around getting townies lynched. For example, Karuta is my lover but Nova cleared me as Town already, so we would be better off lynching whoever Karuta's lover is instead depending on who they are. Unfortunately Cstar did not do everything in her power to clear herself. Since she seemed to give up similar to Al, it's not surprising we didn't believe that she was town. Even with that I wish we had lynched Midnight instead. Judge, has Midnight said anything to you in your QT that seemed questionable? Midnight, has Judge said anything that seemed questionable?
So we have 14 hours until we end, but most of those hours are probably going to be spent sleeping by most of us. We're ending at noon and we'll probably only have 5ish hours to discuss anything else. So should we get set on what we want to do since in that time, I doubt we'll hear from the quieter people so keep that in mind.
Oh I see. I still thought he said something earlier like "Jiku said this in past games and she was Mafia (but now she's town) but dead can't talk" which game me that impression
I mean I'm sure we'll hear from Nova soon anyway, but they've just been kind of staying away from each other similarly to how I tried to leave Cstar alone. However, Karuta asked me why Jiku was voting for him and what his chart meant, and I didn't know but I know that Nova, who played with Jiku before had some understanding. So in that regard I guess they aren't connected unless Karuta asked both of us. Anyway, I'm sure Nova will say his lover anyway. It was just kind of weird thing at the back of my head. I've had a bit of a gut feeling that Judge was Mafia but with nothing to make him up.. Ehhh. It's sort of a 55/45 thing, Mafia/Town
I mean, I don't know if Makaze uses a team assigner, or not, but if he sticks with it being random then it could end up being three in a row. I don't think we should discount Judge being Mafia because it would be too "easy", I guess.
I have a feeling the only way to lynch Karuta is to lynch Nova. I mean there's also a pretty good chance it isn't Nova but that's the first person I thought of? Is that weird?
I would rather die tomorrow to do damage control from today before I die. I think we should lynch Midnight today despite losing Judge, and we can deal with our options with me and Marushi both present to discuss.[DOUBLEPOST=1470176335][/DOUBLEPOST]Mish your change of mind so quickly is very concerning
But who is your lover? Because whether they seem town is for us to decide isn't it? And why add Mish in there? I don't understand? There are only 4 Mafia and I named 4 people. I didn't name our suspects, I named our Mafia. And if we find that you're still suspicious later, we'll end up lynching your lover anyway. Also, Cstar since we're pretty sure we're guilty we should take what you say with a grain of salt, however since midnight may be equally as guilty she should answer. As well midnight, we may hit Cstar and Karuta tomorrow anyway, and both of them also have a high chance of turning Mafia. So it would be better to lynch Cstar and him with me, and Al and your other lover with you depending on who they are.
