Mafia [MAFIA] [GAME OVER, TOWN VICTORY] The Classic Setup: Game 1

DAY 1 FINAL VOTE COUNT (6):​

G-dog (7) - Midnight Star, cstar, Calxiyn, al215, Mish, Krowley, Kingdom Hearts530
Krowley (2) - Cat~, tale

Not voting (4) - Judge Sunrose, Ghost, Mixt, G-dog​

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to hammer.

HAMMER. DAY 1 HAS ENDED.

VOTES ARE LOCKED. DO NOT POST.[DOUBLEPOST=1467328274][/DOUBLEPOST]

G-dog has been lynched. He was Vanilla Town.​

Night 1 has begun. Night 1 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 1. There are approximately 1 days and 4 hours until phase end.

DO NOT post in the thread. Send your night actions via Private Message or quicktopics.[DOUBLEPOST=1467390986][/DOUBLEPOST]End of Night may be moved by an hour or so due to festivities. Stay tuned.

 

Day 2 has begun.​

NIGHT 1 RESULTS:​

Krowley has been killed. He was Vanilla Town.​

You may post.

Day 2 ends at 11 PM EST/EDT on July 4. There are approximately 72 hours until phase end.

 

Well I guess that was to be expected based on what people said about Krowley. And in the same vein it doesn't tell us much. Shame too, I was looking forward to what people were talking about. I mean I could read previous games but it just isn't the same.

BTW I know my activity slipped towards the end of that last day. The gist of it is that giving a friend a ride turned into a whole day affair. I was checking a bit from my phone but I couldn't quite keep up with the thread, much less post anything meaningful.

 

Well ****. I was really looking forward to Krowley's analysis's. They probably would have been extremely useful as I keep hearing that they have been in the past.

Also I just want to inform everyone (but especially @Makaze ) I have a wedding tomorrow and a convention on Sunday. I am still going to check and be around (God knows I need something to do at that wedding-God give me the strength not to murder anyone) but if anyone is wondering why I'm not posting much- that's why. I'll be back 100% on Monday.

 

I'm thinking it might be the former. Krowley was pretty silent throughout, but when he got around to analyzing he was really thorough and could've easily been a threat.

And if we're running on that train of thought, going back to look at his analysis would probably be helpful.


Since people are also informing the general populous of the game about absences, I'll be slow to respond on Sunday since I'm headed to a local con for the day.

 

If four or more players request an extension, then I will extend the Day by 24 hours, but let's see how well you do first.

Day 2 ends in approximately 2 days and 20 hours.

 

I've got weekend plans too. I just don't expect them to impact the game much. But it is nice to know that the day can be a bit longer if enough of us think our use of time was too hindered. That being said, let's try not to. This game takes long enough as it is.

 

Hmm I can see why they targeted Krowley, as of yet he hasn't really provided us with much, but he had the capability to be a big problem to mafia later on in the game. This is kinda why I'd liked to have discussed Krowley's last post yesterday even if we didn't act on it but I guess that's at least partially hindsight talking there. It is possible they took out Krowley because one of his suspicions in his last post was correct, however this also might not be the case and they took him out before he could start suspecting the actual mafia. We should probably look at his last post and discuss it, but we shouldn't treat his suspicions as confirmed just because he was town.

 

Good morning! I'm at the cottage rn but I will be coming back tomorrow morning! I'm going to check in 6 hours from now if I can but I am using my cellular and that's dangerous for my phone bill XD

More seriously though, I can see why Krowley was killed. I think it has to do less with his skill. I suspect that the members of this Mafia didn't know first hand what Krowley was capable of, or since it was 'exaggerated' dramatically by you guys they got scared. I believe it has more to do with his analysis on who he thought was guilty.

I personally think that it's an amaurtar Mafia move to kill someone this way. I say this because, at least to me, it's sort of obvious what they're trying to do. The last people who Krowley spoke about were Al and I. I think that they killed Krowley and not say, Heart, may be because of these reasons:

1. That would potentially give the Mafia at least one extra day free of having one of them lynched.

2. Some people already raised suspicion about Al/I the last day, so it wouldn't be hard to at least get me on a soft vote.

3. Once that soft vote was given, the other two Mafia members vote up and maybe one impulsive Town and suddenly either of us is hanging from a tree.

You can see that I'm implying Al is Town, knowing Al as a person or even a player, he wouldn't do something this obvious and sort of stupid (sorry Mafia) but there are three Mafia, so if he is Mafia maybe he didn't really have a choice, or maybe he got nervous and he made a huge mistake.

Let's talk about Al some more. If you guys agree with me and this is why Krowley was killed, this may confirm his innocence. Personally I'm 90% sure of Al's Town Status.

So what's the 10%? Why the doubt? Well, first I need to give you an M.O of the Mafia.

If Al is Mafia, he is surrounded by 2 new or extremely nervous players. 2 people who took what was said about Krowley to heart and got scared, probably without even checking his posts from last game. They needed to get rid of Krowley fast and put the blame on the town so they could have one more day to think, because they suddenly feel like they're running out of time and not planning well ahead.

A new player would kill off Krowley and try to imply Al or/and I are Mafia. (And obviously sometimes this strategy does work but I don't think it does with this group, is what I meant before)

An experienced player would know if they did that, again, depending on the town, they've basically confirmed us being townies. And I don't think they would take that chance.

If that is the Mafia's M.O, then what about Al? Well, Al isn't the type of person who gets scared at the drop of his name. Looking at Krowleys posts it was less about him and more about me. Al also is the type of person that has a silver tongue and debate someone easily, so if Al were Mafia Krowley just wouldn't scare him.

So if Al was Mafia, I'm suggesting that Al was pressured by the other two, if anything. I don't think if he was Mafia and more dominant with his kill choice this would have been it. Al would have killed Midnight or I.

He would do that because he doesn't leave the town with any leads on who to lynch next since we've talked about a lot of people, it isn't as forward as Krowleys ominous looking last statement, and the town needs to basically do the same thing on day 1 again without their powerhouse. That could destroy the town.

Al wouldn't kill someone quiet. He would leave those people to get lynched and give the Mafia time.

But Al also isn't easily pressured into changing his vote. So if he wanted to kill someone else he would have convinced his teammates of it. But obviously we're here now, so he didn't.

And it's because someone else didn't die that I believe in Al's innocence. There is a slim chance Al would have gone along with a plan to kill Krowley that was so "blunt", I guess, and a slimmer chance the other two Mafia pressured him, or he got nervous. And so because those chances I think he's a town, at least 90%

But now we also know that are Mafia are probably very new. They may have played at least one or two games before, but not enough to do something a little less obvious. If anyone agrees with me and could suggest someone who fits Mafia M.O, I think looking at that person would be a good idea today.

Of if you disagree, you may be right. I may be wrong. We may finish this game and I was wrong and then I was dead AND wrong XD but part of Mafia is theorizing and by putting ideas out there you get better.

 

Well Cal, going back to Krowley's post, I have to say (as much as I like you and everything) it's once again quite suspicious that your accusing people once again. (As Krowley pointed out Cal and Al (I still love the rhyme scheme) like to point the most fingers)

Now from your post I'm assuming Al has played multiple games. Can I assume everything else is truthful? I'm not sure. I mean you are his girlfriend and all but could you be lying? Sure you could, I wouldn't know, I've never had a conversation with Al (Hi Al nice to meet ya, I'm Sam).

And this does leave me wondering if Krowley's skill was eggaggeraed. Well that requires reasearch which requires time so I guess I know what I'll be doing Monday :P

 

No votes have been cast.

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to hammer.

Day 2 ends in approximately 2 days and 12 hours.

 

I'm confident I could do a similar analysis of another player when the opportunity strikes. It helps to know the person but I'm taking what I've seen from previous games.

Al can always correct me if I'm wrong, but, I mean, if he would kill Krowley out of nervousness I guess he's not as good at the game as I thought ;)

All joking aside, Al's not dead so he can comment on my analysis.

I don't mean eggagerate meaning it isn't true. It would sort of be like saying "Misty is scary when she's angry" (I have never seen Misty angry this is a made up analogy) but the nervous person who needs to talk to Misty only hears "Misty is scary" and gets more nervous and panics.

It's the same with Krowley. The nervous Mafia don't read "Krowley can be a threat, if he posts, under these circumstances" etc etc, the nervous Mafia see "KROWLEY IS A THREAT - KILL HIM"

 

While I do agree with your analysis on this, I'm not sure why you are jumping to cover Al so quickly. Yes, you explained possibilities of what he could be doing if he was in a mafia, but you said "90% likely to be town". That is taking an extremely huge gamble this early on for the sake of your friend. Even if you know how he may usually play, how do you know he might not be taking a tactic you aren't familiar with?

I mean I don't know how Al plays generally, that's a benefit you have that some of us don't.

 

It's less about friendship and more about alignment. If Al is Town it's in my interest you guys don't lynch him today, and if we're all taking a look at Krowley's post I'm being preemptive in the fact we'd probably be voted for.

And, by extension, part of the reason for analyzing Al was because if I could make a good arguement for him not being Mafia, and you guys agree that I'm right about the Mafias plan, that would mean that the people Krowley named before he died are both town being used as Lynch bait.

And the other person Krowley named is me and I can't really analyze myself.

If it was another two people Krowley named, say Al and Midnight, I would have done an analysis on both parties... But in this case that's not going to work lol

 

I mean, looking at it, the mafia might also have gotten rid of Krowley simply because he wasn't very active. It's just the fact that he wrote an analysis that may have thrown us for the loop. There are so many reasons the mafia could have done it, but I wonder if the intent would have been too obvious if it was to use you guys as lynch bait.

 

Possibilily, but killing the quieter ones is something that we could do by lynching, which would effectively waste our time and give them more time. Also to my understanding Krowley would have gotten replaced, but I don't think they thought about that which is why they killed him, because regardless of the Lynch Bait, they may have been too scared to take that chance and had to kill him off.

 

Ok, before I even get to the issue of Krowley's murder, I want to address something that's been bugging me, and that no one seemed to mention yet.

Why on earth did we have a hard lynch, again? I mean, not that I would've disagreed with the choice of victim, so to speak, but come on! That was really unnecessary; day wasn't even over yet. By the fourth vote, I'd say the wagon was rolling quite steadily. Then @Mish decided to give it another nudge, Krowley (RIP) gave it a whack and @Kingdom Hearts530 finally rode it off the cliff. Now, I understand this may not have been intentional, given that mafia tend to prefer the rather cozy and inconspicuous middle portion of bandwagons. Something just feels off to me, is what I'm trying to say. Not to mention, the hammer was what prevented me from even taking a stance.

 

I also thought we're going to prevent a hard Lynch which is why I didn't plan on voting for him after everyone said stop, but I guess it didn't really matter because they day had ended by time I say the hard lynch.

 

As I mentioned in the post where I voted for G-Dog, I wanted to get my vote in before I left for the evening (end of game day was going to be 4am for me). We lost out on 4 hours of discussion time and we lynched a town, but I don't think it's as big of a deal as some people are making it out to be. I don't think those 4 hours would have lead to a different outcome. Although, we would be better off making the most of all the time we have, so let's try not to let that happen again. (On that note, @Makaze , I work 8:30-5 on weekends so if the offer of an extension is on the table, that would be cool.)

Krowley we know was a townie. KH530 I'm inclined to believe made a genuine error. At first, I was a little suspicious, but I combed through her previous posts and she does make it clear that she is a newbie (and I don't believe she made these posts to preemptively absolve herself of mistakes, to give the impression of innocence - I believe the below to be genuine).

Cal seems to think that all or most of the mafia are also newbies. I don't have any reason to agree with this. Krowley's analytical post lived up to our expectations. We hyped him up for a reason. He is a good player, there was no exaggeration and other players have implied that he was a big loss to us. In my opinion, eliminating him was a smart move by the mafia. For this reason, Cal, I don't think your theory on Al's alignment holds up. That said, I am sort of leaning towards you being town. 1) It would be far too obvious for you to kill Krowley after he had incriminated you so strongly. If you were mafia, I don't think you would have done that. 2) You are defending Al far too vehemently at this stage for you to both be mafia. If we lynch you and you turn out to be mafia, he's completely exposed and vice versa. So it stands to reason that either you are both town or one of you is mafia and one of you is town. I feel confident that you can't both be mafia.