Mafia [MAFIA] Lovers Mafia [GAME OVER, MAFIA VICTORY]

Well... If your reads are dwindling to nothing, maybe instead of trying to stop it you should start looking for reasons why they're doing that? If someone you thought seemed Mafia is now seeming neutral, maybe you caught something subconsciously and if you can pinpoint what, you could notice something that clears someone, and vice versa with people you used to think were town and now suspect.

For example, I'm starting to suspect you more than I was before, putting you at Negative Neutral. You seem to be slipping under the radar a little. I find myself doing with you what I was doing with Cstar sometimes last game- I kind of just forget you're here. It could be that you're Mafia purposefully lying low for now while we focus on other players, and then after some of the more vocal townies end up lynched you can step in and 'get your footing,' and lead on from there. I know, kinda WIFoM, but still. I know this playstyle is your norm, but the longer it goes on, the more suspicious it is.

 

Well the main ones that I was starting to doubt were Cal and Mish. Though I am aware that part of the reason for that is that they both were two of the first ones to go after splodge but that is straying into WiFoM, which is really bad so I feel like I shouldn't discount them for that reason. I was also starting to doubt Mish though for her other posts as well, as she seemed to be posting helpful things that I got a much better feeling from.

 

Okay. How about you try to look at them as if they're town? If you previously suspected them and now you feel like you don't, why not try to look at a few of their posts and try to hunt for evidence that they're town instead of evidence that they're Mafia? You might find something that either confirms your new feelings, or contradicts them.

How about Cal? She plays an important role in Nova's theories, so how about you try to determine whether or not you agree with him about her? Look for evidence that makes you think she's town.[DOUBLEPOST=1470006971][/DOUBLEPOST]@Judge Sunrose , you've been studying the game mechanics. What do you think are the odds of a Townie being linked to two other Townies, and what are the odds of a Townie being linked to two Mafia?

 

Turns out, I did feel like posting tonight.

So, going through what's been happening today much of what I feel has been said. We need to see posts from people like Saxima and generally, the rest of the playerbase. I'd particularly like to see what she has to say because of her rather dramatic suspect list where she identified five potential Mafia members (Naming one of which as myself). For convenience, that is put down here.

Now, the question is has any of that changed?

From a personal point of view I didn't have too much stock in the Splodge case because as Judge pointed out there was room for reasonable doubt. I felt that it was more than likely a newbie mistake but I turned out wrong. Now, let's see what we can make of the rest of her list, because it's an interesting list and contains some of the controversial figures around. My opinion towards myself should be quite obvious, so I don't need to reiterate it. Now, what we have left are three people. Let's see about them.

Nova is an... Interesting character in the game at the moment and seems to be the target of Judge's next theory. Since he's already declared, I think I'll leave the big theory on Nova up to him and I expect that if not tonight, perhaps tomorrow and I'm sure that we'll all come out at least a little bit more enlightened.

Moving on to Mish, we have an interesting character who proved to be the key point in the previous game however her ambiguity and general attitude almost led to a defeat. However, this game she's being different and while still not posting frequently, she's making clear stances and I generally think she's being more helpful. Call it a Neutral-Positive read if you will.

And of course Calxiyn, who I formally apologise to for going after while she was away, but I simply believed that she was able to reply to things when she was out since she had posted in the thread however it appears that I wasn't correct about her level of activity, which she soon corrected. However, that doesn't mean that I'm giving her a free pass and I'll expect a reply once she returns. Her aggressive tactics and nitpicking have already been discussed. One could certainly argue that she's guilty of something by her relative distance from Splodge and her focusing of me during the latter stages of that particular lynch, giving her a degree of plausible deniability for her involvement. Speaking of distance, she did an awfully good job of making sure that they had no Also note that she was actually the last person to consolidate that lynch. Now, what does that mean?

Possibly nothing. Or it could be that she, as a Mafioso put herself on that wagon to show that she was one of the people responsible for the kill. That puts her at face value in a position where she appears to be helping Town while working against one of its members. This game, I've frankly been an easy target. Between a bit of personal confusion as to how to play this version of Mafia and my odd phrasing which upon reflection, I can understand, led me to be somewhat suspect it was easy enough for her to build up a case and start pushing for it. Marushii actually pointed out the problems with me first if I recall correctly, which gives her automatic support and a springboard from which to base her case off. In such an event, she slips through the cracks nicely and her support of the Splodge lynch puts her in a position to basically say "Oopsie, I made a mistake" after she lynches me wrongly.

These three quotes demonstrate what I would argue to be her distancing in action, and it's a job well done and I firmly believe that she's capable enough of pulling off a successful distance. It's subtle, but effective.

So, here's the million dollar question to ask. If Cal is scum, then who's with her?

I'll sound like a broken record at this rate but to start with I call upon Tribbles to be one potential partner. Now, why Tribbles with Cal? Well, it's down to weak opinions on either from both sides. It's as if Tribbles doesn't actually seem to look at the Cal case at all and glosses over it, dodging the issue entirely. Most of us who have posted during the time have said at least something about it but she hasn't. I'd say that the two of them could be considered partners because right now they seem quite separate and can work towards the overall goals of the Mafia while having a silent connection. Correct me if I've missed something, but Cal also doesn't talk about Tribbles all that much. There's a mutual ignoring of one another I believe and it'll pay off later on. They don't appear to be lovers, they haven't expressed strong opinions on each other. They also complement each other nicely. Cstar has said it herself - She doesn't post that much, it's how she plays. With Cal posting fairly frequently and being so aggressive, it's easy for her to overshadow a quieter teammate such as Cstar.

For reference purposes, Cstar's admission of staying to the sides.

Going back to this one because Korosu could be it. Korosu is new and to be honest, I don't feel that they're completely Town. You might be tempted to say that this is because they rebuked something I said, but that could actually be part of it. If we consider that Cal is actually a guilty person and the Mafia in their day chat decided to pick me, then a simple comment from Korosu telling me off is actually pretty believable as its a foot in the door to say they're willing to come out against me and it does fit in with Cal. But, how does that fit in with Cal saying that Korosu seems suspicious? The fact that she never actually acted on it. It dawned on me that she and Splodge could have been on the same team for the same reason, they're both in the same quote! She offhandedly mentioned them but it gets quickly overlooked because just after that she targets none other than myself. She puts the distance in, and they're suddenly separate.

This is the only mention that I could find of Cal in Korosu's posts. This is distancing the two and it's a noncommittal questioning. Of course, there is the case that Korosu could simply be new and trying to get into the game, even if it is a weak commitment. But we do get something about Tribbles here. It's possibly a bit of distancing themselves, I'm wiling to accept that as a possibility here. There's not much commitment here either. Tribbles is a safe option they say, but they don't go into it any further than that.

We can see here that once again, Korosu goes back to Tribbles and Splodge. Once again, not much happens. Korosu doesn't go for a push, but makes some basic comments about how Tribbles behaved a little weirdly. Not going to say anything about Judge yet, I'm seriously thinking about him right now though.

Unfortunately this is where I run out of steam, for now at least. As energised as I am, this is a past midnight theory and it'll probably need some review and I'll need to go through further to figure out who our other person is in the Splodge/Tribbles/Korosu/Calxiyn group. I don't believe anyone has given the three listed here a strong Town reading yet either, which is somewhat telling. What I do want to emphasise is that Tribbles does seem to be a common factor in things and even one of her potential teammates has commented on it, possibly as a means of disguising their relationship. I've been suspicious of Tribbles from the start and we've all seemed to have given her at least some thought and I think that even more needs to be given at this present time.[DOUBLEPOST=1470008971][/DOUBLEPOST]I'm signing off for the night now.

 

I'd be interested to know more about this. Eagerly awaiting that case.

 

I'm not home right now and I haven't been able to read all day and I won't be able to any time for the next several hours. Sorry for the inconvenience, but I'll try to get in soon.

 

Oh man... there's too much information right now, I'm feeling overwhelmed. XD

I think Mish is reading as Mafia to me... Actually looking at her posts, she actually seemed to waffle both about Splodge and Tribbles at different points during the last day phase, sometimes saying they were unlikely to be working together, sometimes saying they were probably both Mafia, earlier in the day said that Splodge's slip about only having one lover was probably genuine but that we shouldn't vote for him anyway because it wasn't a good idea to lynch based on number of lovers, mentioned more than once that we all should be focusing on the inactives instead of scumhunting (early in D1, before inactives really became that big a problem) at one point suggested that even if we do find Mafia, we should consider holding back on lynching them because we might not want to risk lynching their lovers, voted for Splodge after the wagon seemed to die down almost as if in response to my pointing out she hadn't voted. I feel like her responses have been rather weak, and she also has been mentioned as slightly suspicious by some, but also mentioned as slightly townlike by others, and has enough activity to be counted as active without saying as much as some others.

Not to say that she should be today's lynch, but I wanted to put that thought out there.

I also agree that Korosu needs to be talked about more, and I am finding her rather suspicious, but I'm more worried about Karuta, who I've seen reading the thread several times without posting, despite being prodded now and then, but has also mainly avoided being the topic of discussion. When talking about the inactives, people tend to bring up Korosu most often, and Saxima after that, leaving Karuta for last or failing to prod her altogether. I also want to mention that in Karuta's list of reads, he put as Mafia Splodge, Sax, and Korosu, and in town placed me, Cal, Jiku, Nova, and Midnight, leaving Al, Tribbles, Mish and Judge in unsure. I think it's suspicious that he correctly read both Splodge and Jiku that early in the day on so little evidence. We all were already uneasy about the Jiku thing before the alignment was confirmed, and her flipping town makes me suspect Karuta even more. What are the odds of Karuta randomly sticking Jiku in the town slot based on two posts and the fact that peeps said she played numbers in her previous games? This plus the fact that he put Splodge as Mafia, maybe to put some distance there (as I'm sure any first-time player on a Mafia team would have been coached to give correct reads now and then) would have done. This might be WIFoM, but I think it's really telling. Also, despite placing Splodge on his early-day reads, he actually didn't even mentioned him in most of his other posts, mentioning and voting for others instead.

All this along with the fact that Splodge only ever talked about Karuta to defend him, calling him 'honest' and even admitting that Karuta was doing the exact same thing as other people that Splodge found suspicious for doing it, makes me think Karuta might be on Splodge's team.

As for the other main cases, everything's basically already been said. I feel like I've made my stance pretty clear on most people, and I'm basically just waiting and watching for responses, at least until tomorrow.

So yeah, I just wanted to give out my two cents on some of the people who haven't been talked about much.

I suppose...

##Vote: Karuta

 

Sure thing. Fair warning though, I'm not very knowledgeable about probability theory in particular. I ran the numbers once to find out the likelihood of me having two scum for partners, but that was well before Jiku and Splodge flipped, which complicates things a bit because I think it goes into conditional prob. territory aaand I don't remember how that works very well, haha sorry.

I can still (maaaybe) tell you what the odds were at the start of the game, to the best of my ability:

-------

So, assuming we know for a fact that the player in question a) is Town and b) has 2 lovers, for the first question we take the prob. that the first lover is Town (7/12) times the prob. that the second is also Town (6/11), which gives us 7/22, roughly 32%.

If you want the double red variation, we have prob. that the first lover is Mafia (5/12) times prob. that the second is also Mafia (4/11) giving us 5/33, which is about 15%.

I'm feeling generous tonight, so as an added bonus I'll tell you the odds of having one Town and one Mafia, and that is (7/12 x 5/11) + (5/12 x 7/11) = 35/66 = ~53%.

Hey, would you look at that, they all add up to 100% o: Oh boy, now I know I can't be wrong! pffyeah I wish...

 

Thank you. XD

 

Please tell me where I said that..? I've never flip flopped on this, I've suspected that Splodge and Tribbles are on the same team for a while. I can explain my reasoning again if you like or you can just check my history.

Again, please tell me where I said this. You might be referring to a comment I made about not 'killing off' people just because we think they only have one lover. At that point, I saw Splodge's inexplicable slip up defenses as him panicking over only having one lover and therefore more 'expendable' to the town, if you get what I mean.. I in no way was trying to warn people off voting for Splodge and I don't think anyone took my comment that way anyway. I made my case against Splodge and 'number of lovers' never came into it.

I did question whether we should still go after inactives on D1. I was seeking advice on it, not telling people what to do though. I see now that that strategy doesn't work in a lovers mafia. Anyway, I dropped that line of thinking after the first day once I saw how much information we were getting on D1. Usually D1 is random guessing and not much else and I wasn't aware that lovers mafia would be so different at the time.

Yes, this is true. Your point? Judge originally hinted that we should be wary of busses for this reason and I replied. Again, I was seeking advice rather than suggesting that that should be the route that we take. It's damage control. It's also total WIFOM territory, but we shouldn't rule it out.

I've explained this. You said not to vote, I didn't. You took your vote off, I voted.

I haven't been able to post much today because of work and then hanging out with my Mam. But I just had to make a rebuttal before I leave for tonight lol. Expect me to come back with gusto tomorrow.

 

1: Where you said that Splodge and Tribbles were unlikely to be working together: My apologies, upon further reading, you only technically said they were probably not lovers. My bad.

2. Where you implied that we should probably not lynch Splodge even with him probably only having one lover, because we should go after inactives instead.

However, the rest of this is good, and honestly, I only went out of my way to respond to these because I wanted to show that I at the very least, wasn't crazy to think what I did.

I think your defenses to this are pretty good. I'm willing to read you as town for now. Though, heaven forbid I be wrong again... XD

So I'm good as far as Mish goes, but I'm still suspicious of Karuta.

 

I 'told you off' because the self-martyring was irritating and if anything, made me more suspicious of your alliance. Your panicking seems text-book Mafia being caught out/panicking when more pressure is applied. You have plenty of time to defend yourself against Cal and others accusations yet seemed to have given up because you had two votes against you. It was funny. I can't speak for Cal but I imagine her reasons for finding me suspicious may be the same as @Marushi 's. More gut feeling rather than anything really solid right now. This may because of my posting style which is ambiguous. This is my first game and I don't have a 'posting style' established yet. So - players can't really rely on past interactions in previous games to see if I'm behaving differently or not as they are doing with @Mish, for example. If I'm wrong about this @Marushi and @Calxiyn, please correct me.

I think I've mentioned Cal once or twice, actually. I found her wording odd that is all and probably was a weak commitment. Since nobody responded to me, I left it. The tribbles comment was added as I didn't want not to say anything because then attention would be bought to the fact I didn't mention them, as what has happened in the past. I most likely should phrased it better with 'tribbles is a safe option if you go off the analysis and reasoning the rest of you have gave'. I didn't add anything more because I felt the reasoning for tribbles being a safe option had already been mentioned.

I went back to Tribbles and Splodge because Marushi asked my thoughts on the trio. As you can see in my post, I had nothing to really say on Judge so far. If you read my reply before to Marushi in general, I mentioned how I feel like I can't really give the detail/deep analysis that other (more experienced players) like, hence my basic comments. I find your wording odd as well. 'our other person is in' - I may be a little WIFM but it seems you're desperately trying to move focus off of you by presenting tribbles. While I agree, tribbles could use more focus I understand their given reasons for staying to the side. If I'm right in thinking, some players do get overly invested into this game and need time to cool off. It happens to the best of us when playing any game.

Based off your previous reaction and this post - ##Vote al215

@Marushi - You present an interesting idea on Kat but I have nothing to really add beyond that right now. It's just another player to consider.

 

Okay just woke up and have to do stuff for like an hour before I can devote Mafia time, but...

If everyone could stop voting please? Hard lynch is easier to come by this game. @Ars Nova @Calxiyn @Korosu

I'll be back in an hour.

 

Okay, so I'm back... I want to preface what I'm about to say with this is my first time playing with the Lovers mechanic, so I'm really nervous about this, and I'm just hoping I'm not playing wrong. XD

The general consensus, it appears, is to vote for either @tribbles or @al215 . I am lovered to them both.

It doesn't make sense for me to keep hiding it, as I'll die either way, and the purpose of keeping my lovers anonymous was to protect them from death by my being lynched, but the thing is, that's what I think should happen.

They have both been acting just as scummy in their quicktopics as they have been out here in the thread, and while the likelihood of them both being Mafia together is slim, it's still there, and despite that, I genuinely can't tell which of them I'm more suspicious of. I can't decide which one I want to see lynched.

But since I'm going to die either way, the obvious answer is to lynch myself and literally kill two birds with one stone. Because even though they're not both likely to be Mafia, I'm reasonably sure at least one of them is. And like I said, I'm going to die either way, so this makes much more sense than to try and pick one of them and also risk losing whoever their other partners are. Because if they're Mafia, their partners are more likely to be Town. I know I'm town, I know that my partner's partners are likely to be town if I'm right. Why risk those people when I can go after two decidedly scummy Players?

Yeah, one of them is likely town, so we'd still lose two town either way, but we'd at least know who all we'd be losing, and we wouldn't risk killing off other townies as well. This is a calculated risk and I'm willing to make it, because like I said, I die either way.

##Unvote
##Vote: Marushi

@tribbles @al215 , I would actually recommend you revealing who your lovers are. As I said, the purpose of anonymity is to protect them from being lynched along with you- but that's not going to happen, and the reason I'm saying this is because If you're town, they're very likely to be Mafia. We want the town to pull through at the end. If you're town, help us out by giving everyone a new suspect to hunt down after we're all dead.

 

I was not expecting that but it does make a hell of a lot of sense. It's a shame we'll be losing you though. (My town reading for you is currently shooting through the roof xD) This also solves one of my dilemmas quite nicely. I've not yet fully made up my mind if I think that they are mafia or not but I approve of the tactic. Taking out two suspicious people and one town is possibly better than 1 suspicious person and 2 unknowns.

 

I'm glad you agree. lol, I never thought I'd say this, but vote for me, please? XD

 

Oh yeah, I probably should but that said we need to remember we're still near the start of this day so we really don't want to bring it to a hard lynch and lose half the day. We need to make the most of you while you're still here. xD

##Vote: Marushi

 

lol, while this is true, I want to at least bring myself up to three votes to tie me with the lynch for Al.[DOUBLEPOST=1470062186][/DOUBLEPOST]On that note, the reason I did spring this up so early was because of the serious wagon forming on Al. I sensed I was running out of time.

 

DAMN IT Maru that was my idea.

I'm connected to Cstar, and I was going to suggest we lynch Al today, then me tomorrow. Depending on how Cstar and Al fall, we can figure out their last partner. And if most people start to think the other partner is my lover, then I'll go down in a similar fashion to Marushi.

But let's make a case for both Cstar, and Al being lynched today.

As far as Cstar goes, she did vote for Nova and I wonder if that was a weak distancing from her and Nova. I even told her it was a great idea - Nova's a good player, we need to watch him.

Earlier Cstar said she thought one of her lovers was Mafia, but never followed up on it. Now, that other person has to be me.

But this is where I find issue with things, and this is why I don't want to vote for Marushi yet.

Al seems to be set on lynching me, and if Cstar meant me as the other Mafia member, that would end up killing her if she is a Mafioso. They would both me setting me up to die. Could this be because they know I'm connected to another town, because I'm a threat, or because Al thinks he can win this all by himself. Is Cstar pulling a Marushi, but on the Mafia side?



But did Al expect me to be lynched? Obviously not anymore with Nova's case, so it's still safe to vote me and make it LOOK like he wants to. Before I had a few votes, but I think he sort of knew it wasn't going anywhere. That could be a possibility. The only reason why Al and Cstar were driving me so hard was to make themselves look innocent, which is why Cstar earlier said she thought one of her partners was a Mafioso. I don't think either one of them thought I would actually end up getting lynched.

If Al, Cstar, and my lover are Mafia partners, this would work the exact same way. Lynching me would take out 2/5 Mafia, possibly on day one. Then Al would shortly follow for leading the lynch against me. That's 3/5, then Splodge, 4/5, that leaves one. And those are really poor odds.

I think it's possible they could all be Mafia partners, but all of this relies on how much Al thinks it's possible to lynch me. I don't think he thought the chances were high, which makes it more possible.


Now, if the chances were higher, that's where I find it odd that Al, my lover and Cstar would all be Mafia. Al is either trying to get 3 townies, or there's something else there that I can't see.


I want to see what Nova and Marushi say about this. I'm of the opinion Al knew I was no where near to getting lynched as much as Splodge, and did it as a safety thing. With this idea, it would make Cstar, Al, and my lover all Mafia. But we should really see where Cstar falls first. If Cstar falls town, it could still be my Mafia lover that would be punished by Al, if Al executed lynching me successfully.


Anyway, I'm going to talk about Al,.

To further the case against Al even further, he was criticizing me for not responding to posts in this quote

However, after I posted my call-out post, Al posted and didn't even reply. In that post I talked about my activity, which he later apologized for not knowing, which means he must have seen the post explaining myself but he did not reply to any of the arguments I made. GRANTED no one else did either, and if it's hard to read I'll reiterate it.

Al pushed extremely hard for people to believe my guilt, even though he knew full well where I was. He worked off of Nova's case because he had been backed into a corner. He needed to show people that he was actually worth something to the Town. But in the process he throws another Town Member under the bus.

That was my point from before, but I think it can back this up a bit more now.

Al weakly decides when Splodge is at 4 votes that he wants to go after Cstar, in an effort to clear him and put a block between him and Cstar working as a team. Now, I think this is a bit odd considering Al wants to go after me so bad, but doesn't seem to realize if I am lynch, Cstar will die. They either didn't tell each other who they were connected to, or Al thinks he can win all by himself. I think that's the cocky attitude I would expect Al to start getting. That if Cstar is lynched, we would go back and see he wanted to lynch Cstar, and forget about him. But with me dead, Al has no case. That's the only case he made and he made it badly.

When Nova posted clearing me, Al seemed to ignore his reasoning all together. He continues to "give up" and then vote me without responding to what Nova said. See, Nova posted his argument to clear me first, then Al posted his after. (Nova is post 4285471, Al is 4285477). Now this worries me, because in the last game and in general, Al is big about logic and reasoning. But now Al is getting too nervous to think clearly and throwing what he would normally do out the window.

And in that last post, Al acts like he doesn't know how many lovers he has.

If Al is a town, he's playing AWFULLY. If he's Mafia he may as well just admit it like Cstar did last game XD there is no way to justify any of this without empty excuses. He's given up fast, because he's frustrated, which usually happens with Al. But if he were town he wouldn't be this anxious and he would have found the logic in what Nova is saying, which may have ended up clearing him if he could have helped Nova prove his point.

But the fact that he didn't when it was presented, makes me think that Al has messed up as a Mafioso. I think a smart Mafioso would have either agreed with Nova and provided points saying they were wrong, or refuted it if they could find enough to counter Nova.

But Al didn't do either, he just gave up and ignored that post, which I think shows most of his guilt. I think regardless of Cstar's alignment Al is either just really guilty, or super unhelpful, and an unhelpful town like this is basically a player for the Mafia.

 

Whoa whoa whoa. Listen, I understand where you're coming from, but that's potentially two Townies for one Mafiosi. We shouldn't risk it. Look, at the very least, let's wait and see if they say who their Lovers are. If they don't come through, it's still safer to lynch one of them; they could be Mafia linked to their buddies, or not linked to anyone else. We have to be careful not to drop below parity here.

Also, Midnight just shot up my Maf list for how willing and downright eager she was to jump on this idea. So you may've flushed another one out already.